612
FXUS61 KBTV 262357
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
757 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system moves through tomorrow and tomorrow night, bringing
rounds of rain, gusty winds, and a couple embedded thunderstorms.
There is a low risk of severe storms over northern New York. The
steady rain moves out Monday night but there will be a few chances
for showers mid and late week. Temperatures will generally be close
to seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 716 PM EDT Sunday...A beautiful evening acrs our cwa with
plenty of sunshine, warm temperatures and comfortable humidity
values. Temps are crntly in the 70s with dwpts in the upper 40s
to mid 50s, with some high level clouds approaching northern NY.
Fcst remains dry thru midnight, but several periods of rain
showers with embedded rumbles develop by early Monday morning
acrs northern NY and enter the CPV btwn 6-9 AM Monday. Gusty
south/southeast winds develop too as gradient tightens btwn
deepening sfc low pres and departing high pres over northern
Maine. Did increase arrival timing of precip by 1 to 2 hours
for early Monday morning based on crnt radar trends and latest
21z RAP progs. Rest of fcst in good shape.

Previous discussion below.
Skies are currently mostly clear with only some daytime cumulus
present over the higher elevations. The cumulus will dissipate
this evening but clouds will quickly move in from the west out
ahead of a relatively strong storm system. There will be periods
of rain during the day on Monday and chances for a few embedded
thunderstorms, particularly over northern New York. Instability
will be low but there will be strong 0-6KM and low-level shear
so there is a low chance of severe thunderstorms, mostly over
the parts of St. Lawrence Valley. That is the area with the
strongest instability. A low-level jet will pass overhead during
the day Monday, bringing winds up to around 50KTs at 925 mb.
There will be some breaks in the rain when the strongest part of
the jet will be overhead, so there is the opportunity for some
of the stronger winds to mix to the surface. The wind direction
will generally be SSE so this favors areas over the northern
Adirondacks seeing the strongest winds, where gusts above 40 mph
are possible. Steadier rain arrives and the low-level jet exits
in the evening, so winds will calm down a bit. The cold front
will move through Monday night and will bring the heaviest
precipitation. Overall, rainfall amounts look to range from
around a third of an inch over northern areas to around an inch
over southern areas. Areas that receive heavier convective
showers will see locally more. There is a low risk of flash
flooding where the strongest convective storms set up.
Therefore, the whole region is in a marginal excessive rainfall
outlook for a 5% chance of flash flooding. Behind the front
Monday night, there should be a break in the rain, but
temperatures will stay relatively mild. Lows should be in the
mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...Troughiness will remain over our area for
Tuesday and Tuesday night as upper level trough lags behind surface
boundary which will push east of Vermont early Tuesday morning.
There will be a break in the precipitation chances Tuesday morning,
then increasing pops as we head into the afternoon hours with
vorticity swinging overhead. Showers will continue into the
overnight. Have a slight chance of thunder Tuesday afternoon in the
St Lawrence valley, then we lose surface based instability
overnight. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 60s in
Northern New York to upper 70s across the larger valleys in Vermont.
Overnight temperatures will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s,
coldest in the Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...Expect another showery day on Wednesday as
upper trough still remains over the region. Some drier air will
finally work into the area behind departing upper trough on
Thursday. Thursday continues to look like the coolest day of the
period with highs only reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s, with
breezy northwesterly flow. Models are depicting building ridge
towards the end of the week with an overall drying trend
anticipated. Temperatures will trend back towards seasonal normals
headed into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
across all terminals for the next several hours ahead of an
approaching storm system. Ceilings will begin to lower
overnight as southerly winds bring increased moisture, with MVFR
ceilings possible at KMPV by 09Z or so and more widespread MVFR
ceilings expected by the afternoon. Precipitation will gradually
overspread the region during the day, with some MVFR, and some
localized IFR, conditions possible in the heaviest showers and
some thunderstorms will also be possible across northern New
York terminals (KMSS and KSLK).Winds will remain fairly light,
generally 10 knots or less, before a strong low- level jet
brings strong southeasterly winds for most of the forecast
period with gusts up to 25 knots possible. LLWS is expected to
develop across all terminals during the morning into the early
afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Kremer