877
FXUS63 KEAX 040443
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1143 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers continue to be possible tonight into
  tomorrow morning.

- A cold front will move through Tuesday bringing a much more focused
  thunderstorm chances for Tuesday afternoon and evening. There
  will be a threat of large hail, damaging winds, and flooding
  rains.

- Drier, less humid conditions are expected Wednesday into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Satellite imagery today shows a zonal flow is still prevailing
across much of the Nation; though looking at the trough making
landfall across the Pacific Northwest that wont last long. Closer to
home a messy, and broad, shortwave trough is moving east of the
Mississippi River. In its wake is at least one MCV that is spinning
away over central Kansas this afternoon. In general, some form
of MCV has been the norm in response to the various storms that
have been sweeping across the region overnight in this low
shear/high moisture environment that currently prevails due to
the zonal flow.

For the rest of today and tonight...we will see the cold pool from
the overnight activity continue to push southeast across Oklahoma
into Arkansas. This is already resulting in some storms popping up
across the Ozarks this afternoon with further development noted
working its way north into central Missouri. But, given the
environment we just expect a quick burst of heavy rain and the
threat of lightning with any of this activity. Looking farther to
our west, the MCV over Kansas will likely spin its way slowly
northeast into Missouri, but current thoughts are that it wont
arrive till after sunset, and with the loss of daytime heating this
should limit any further activity from this circulation overnight.
Otherwise looking more broadly at tonight, models point at another
nocturnal jet ramping up across the western Plains ahead of the
Pacific Northwest trough, but this time the jet is expected to
break in two with the southern branch focusing more across
Oklahoma into southern Kansas. The resulting convection should
be south of our area for Tuesday morning, though depending on
where the complex sets up we might see some storms shift across
portion of east central Kansas into west central Missouri.

Tuesday...baring any morning activity, our attention turns to the
cold front that will sweep through later in the day. While
confidence in the forecast has been low lately owing to the nature
of the low shear/high moisture environment, the frontal passage
Tuesday gives us definite focus that will drive storm activity
Tuesday afternoon and night as there will be significantly more shear
to help organize storms. While I don`t have confidence in anyone
model solution, the general nature of the front will likely
result in isolated storms staring ahead of the front which will
then congeal into a squall line. Shear looks to be mostly
parallel to the front, thus as the storms move through large
hail and damaging winds are thought to be the primary threats.
However, local flooding may be an issue as precipitable water
values will be running around 1.5 inches. That said, it`s
entirely possible that the line of storms will be too
progressive to put down too much water in any one location.

For Wednesday and the periods beyond...the general pattern adjusts
from our zonal flow to a northwest flow as the Pacific Northwest
trough takes its time moving east along the USA/Canadian border.
There are some weak disturbances that might bring a chance of rain
Friday night through Saturday, but otherwise it should be nice with
highs in the 80s and lows ranging from the 60s into the 50s, if you
go far enough north.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals with light southerly winds. Light
southerly winds (between 5 and 10 knots) and VFR conditions are
likely to persist through tonight into Tuesday under a broken
mid level cloud deck. A cold front will approach the terminals
from the northwest Tuesday evening, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of the front. As
such, have introduced VCTS at the terminals for Tuesday evening
(onset time of 23z at STJ, 00z at MCI, 01z at MKC, and 02z at
IXD). Storms should exit to the southeast by late evening, with
winds turning northerly behind the front, remaining light.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...BMW