138
FXUS65 KFGZ 091719
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1019 AM MST Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures today and Monday will trend
back upward by Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Expect mainly dry
conditions, aside from isolated showers and thunderstorms over
eastern Arizona this afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...No significant changes with the forecast this morning.
Grabbed some latest and slightly more aggressive guidance to plug
in for sky cover to match mid to high level clouds filtering into
the area with the weak wave moving through. Pops were bumped up
just slightly. The added moisture, combined with terrain lifting
should be enough to spark a few showers/high based thunderstorms
not just for the White Mountains, but also for the Chuskas toward
the Four Corners.

While not forthcoming today, it is likely that heat products will
be needed. The Grand Canyon is the most needed Tuesday/Wednesday
time frame from the overall heat impacts experienced there with
the high tourism and highs expected to exceed 110 degrees along
parts of it. Elsewhere, it`s a bit more tricky as areas like the
lower elevations of Yavapai County are better suited to handle
the heat in terms of impacts. However, temperatures are expected
to near record daily highs similar to last week`s heat that set
numerous daily max temperatures for different climate
sites...though it`s easily possible that later this month even
warmer temperatures could occur, but they won`t meet
climatological records as they are nearly 10 degrees higher.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /452 AM MST/...Today, a weak s/wv will interact
with our former ridge, now displaced into New Mexico. Some mid-
level moisture is noted advecting into eastern Arizona this
morning. This will allow for a slight increase in PW, which may be
all this s/wv needs to generate some isolated convection this
afternoon. Nothing impactful is expected.

That is about all the action we see this forecast period, aside from
another warming trend due mid-week. Current solutions have us right
on the border of another EHW, Tuesday looks marginal, but one may be
needed for Wednesday. We will wait another day on this, potentially
issuing heat products for next week Sunday night, coinciding with
our weekly partner emails.

That`s it for now, in summary, seasonable and mainly dry through
Monday, then heating up again.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 09/18Z through Monday 10/18Z...VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period with continuous SCT to BKN high
clouds. Mostly dry conditions expected outside of
showers/thunderstorms near/south of a KSOW-KSJN line. Look for
S-SW winds 10-20 kts, gusting near 25 kts throughout the
afternoon. Light and variable winds will return overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 10/18Z through Wednesday 12/18Z...VFR conditions
expected during the outlook period. Winds will generally be W-SW
between 5-15 kts, with localized breezes near 20kts during the
afternoons. Expect light and variable to return to the overnight
periods.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday...Slightly cooler today with
southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph, gusting 20 to 25 mph. A warming
trend begins Monday with lighter winds. Afternoon RHs in the mid
teens to single digits both days with a few showers and storms
possible for portions of eastern Arizona.

Tuesday through Thursday...Warming continues Tuesday, peaking
Wednesday with high temperatures around 10 degrees above normal.
Winds also gradually increase each afternoon with the strongest
winds Thursday. Expect elevated fire weather conditions due to these
stronger winds and mid teen to single digits RH values.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR/Peterson
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Mazon

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff