387
FXUS61 KILN 241740
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
140 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure over the middle Ohio Valley will keep
conditions mainly dry for today. For tonight into Saturday, a
cold front will pass east across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A
stronger low pressure system and cold front are forecast to
affect the region Sunday into Monday. This system has the
potential to bring a heightened period of severe weather Sunday
into Sunday night. A cooler pattern is then forecast next week
in the wake of the stronger system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Recent satellite imagery depict the continued presence of low
stratus across the southern third of the FA. However, the deck
is thinning and observations across the region have come up.
Anticipate that this should clear out within the next hour or
two, leaving some low level cu in place. Another shortwave over
western Kentucky will continue to creep toward our area through
this afternoon. Blow off from this feature along with the
larger, parent low pressure near Minnesota, will start to
overspread the western portion of the region by 6PM or so this
evening.
Do want to take a moment to look at the low end potential for
evening convection today. 12Z guidance has started coming in and
echoes the previous thinking that the MCS will be in a
weakening trend by the time it reaches our area as it moves out
of the more robust areas of MLCAPE and shear. With that being
said, a few members of the MPAS still hold the line together
into southeastern Indiana/ Tri-State region near 00Zish. Main
hazard (should it materialize) would be strong winds. Will be
something to keep an eye on this afternoon.

Previous discussion--> Based on latest satellite and
observation trends, as well as surface flow, have issued a Dense
Fog Advisory for all of our Kentucky counties, along with Ohio
and Switzerland counties in Indiana until 10 AM EDT. Will
continue to monitor trends should statements or advisories be
needed in southern Ohio this morning.

Previous discussion --->

The center of an MCV over far eastern Kentucky early this
morning will continue east to West Virginia through sunrise.
This will allow a short wave mid level ridge to build east into
the middle Ohio Valley today. Clouds associated with the MCV
will shift east and thin. With recent rainfall mainly across
southern locations, the potential exists for some low stratus
and/or fog to form before sunrise. Will continue to monitor
observational and satellite trends should any statements or
advisories be needed. Otherwise, low level moisture should lift
into SCT-BKN cumuliform clouds by afternoon. It now appears that
much of the area should remain dry through 6 pm. Under a weak
low level southerly flow, highs will warm into the lower to mid
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CAMs have recently been advertising a potential weakening MCS
entering our region this evening. Much of the latest guidance
has since backed away from this solution and have thus adjusted
the forecast accordingly. Otherwise, a weak mid level s/wv ahead
of a cold front may bring a low chance of showers/storms to the
region this evening into early morning, mainly for our far
western zones. As the cold front approaches late, there may be a
slight increase in shower/storm potential west toward sunrise.
Otherwise, under partly cloudy skies and southerly winds, lows
will only bottom out in the lower to mid 60s.

For Saturday, main mid level s/wv associated with the cold
front that will move across our forecast area will be over the
Great Lakes. That means that forcing for our area will be mainly
diurnally driven along with some weak lift associated with the
frontal boundary. In any case, this requires a chance of showers
and thunderstorms (30 to 50 percent). There could be a low
chance for a strong or severe storm in the afternoon and early
evening given low end moderate shear and at least moderate
MLCAPES. Highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms to
start the night Saturday night, however these will move out of
the area as the night progresses. There will be breaks in the
clouds along with light winds, especially across southeastern
portions of the region southeast of Interstate 71. In these
areas there will be the potential for some patchy fog
development Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Sunday and Sunday night become more active with multiple rounds
of thunderstorms. With thunderstorms that develop during the
afternoon and evening hours damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes will all be possible. Outside of thunderstorm
activity on Sunday expect gusty winds as well. Additional
development Sunday night will have the potential for primarily
damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rain that will
lead to the potential for flash flooding.

A cold front moves through on Monday bringing additional
thunderstorms to the region along with cooler temperatures and
gusty winds. A couple of upper level disturbances will keep
shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast Tuesday and
Wednesday before finally quieting down Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low stratus have cleared out of the area, leaving scattered to
broken Cu behind. High clouds from a system out west will
continue to blow over the region throughout the remainder of the
day, but conditions remain VFR.

Still low confidence on any residual precipitation from this
system moving through the area this evening/overnight. For now,
have a brief period of VCSH at western TAF sites during late
evening hours... embedded thunder is possible should showers
come to fruition.

After any lingering showers move through, the area dries out
overnight and southerly winds become more southwesterly. Some
hints at fog at the western TAF sites, but for now have only
included a VSBY reduction at KLUK given winds still around 5kts
or so. Saturday morning arrives with lowering CIGs, but kept
everything low end VFR for now with winds out of the southwest.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...CA/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA