964
FXUS64 KMRX 150446
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1246 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Shower activity was less than expected this afternoon. CAMs have
dry weather continuing through the overnight period, although a
few very isolated showers or storms will be possible over the next
couple of hours. No significant changes were made to the forecast
for tonight during the evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Key Messages:

1. Low chance of a thunderstorm in northeast TN and southwest
Virginia to end this evening. Brief strong winds and lightning in
any thunderstorm are the only hazards.

2. Hot and dry weather to continue tomorrow.

Discussion:

Extremely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through
the early evening tonight, and apart from a few lightning flashes
there`s a negligible risk of a severe downburst of wind.
Convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of solar heating.
The upper level ridge that will be influencing our weather for the
foreseeable future is to move to the east over the next 36 hours,
and will become overhead by tomorrow afternoon. Thanks to the
direct overhead presence of the ridge, the subsidence will
intensify and should prevent any convection from forming tomorrow.
Saturday will be similarly hot as today, with temperatures rising
a few degrees above normal and heat indices in the Chattanooga
metro approaching 100F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Key Messages:

1. Hot afternoon temperatures each day.

2. Mostly dry overall.

Discussion: At the beginning of this period Saturday evening, the
center of the upper ridge will be sliding on top of us to keep
things hot and stifling for Sunday.  At the surface, there will be a
ridge over the area Saturday evening, but the ridge will slide east
for Sunday allowing a return flow of Gulf moisture to head back into
the area.

Over the next few days the upper high swells in strength, but
doesn`t stay centered over us.  However, the ridge is large enough
to be the primary player through next week, with hot conditions and
lower than normal chances for rain.  With regard to the upper ridge,
it swells like crazy--in the models looking at the 5920 meter line
("592") from Sunday at 12z to Tuesday at 18z--it swells from the
high center height Sunday (592)--covering little to no area--to
covering most of the eastern U.S. by the 592 line, with the High
center 596-598 to our northeast.

Temperatures in the blend for these periods look good overall, but
did knock down the dew points for Sunday and Monday as deep mixing
of dry pattern should make readings a little lower.  For Tuesday
through Friday the blend dewpoints looked good as-is. Would think
that as the dryness continues--that the dew points might edge even
lower and the afternoon temps edge even higher next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions and light winds are forecast to prevail as high
pressure remains in control of our weather. There is a chance for
some patchy fog this morning, but this is not currently expected
to impact terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  72  96  75 /   0   0  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  91  68  94  72 /   0   0  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       91  67  93  71 /   0   0  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wellington
LONG TERM....GM
AVIATION...JB