406
FXUS65 KPIH 131736
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1136 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions will continue through Monday

- The potential for storms returns starting today

- Critical fire weather conditions possible especially Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Warmer and dry conditions (in terms of humidity anyway)
continues through Monday, with things beginning to cool off a
bit starting Tuesday. A couple of "weak waves" cross the area
today and tomorrow. This will serve to pop off some isolated dry
storms late this afternoon and evening from around Copper Basin
through Island Park. There is a 10-30% chance of gusts over 35
mph with some indications of highest gusts near 45 mph. We
should see these storms move northeast and diminish after
sunset. We will see another round Monday generally north of a
Palisades to Copper Basin line, including some storms across the
Upper Snake Plain. We may also a few storms south of Burley and
across the southeast highlands. There is a 10-50% chance of
gusts over 35 mph (location dependent) with the best potential
from the Arco Desert through Island Park. There is very low
potential for gusts over 50 mph in that area, according to the
higher resolution probability forecasts. We will also some gusty
winds OUTSIDE storms. The trends are toward 20-25 mph gusts
today across the INL, Craters, the Magic Valley and South
Hills/Albion Mountains. On Monday, more widespread gusts of
20-30 mph are expected (outside of Island Park and Driggs), with
gusts up to 35 mph across the Magic Valley, Craters and the
INL. There is a 10-30% chance of exceeding 35 mph in those
spots. Starting Tuesday, low pressure drops south into the
Northern Rockies...and to some extent portions of the Great
Basin and Pacific Northwest. It will be cooler, but it remains
breezy along with a better chance of showers and storms,
especially across the northeast corner.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Behind an exiting trough over the Continental Divide on
Wednesday, near normal to below normal temperatures will
continue with highs in the 70s/80s/90s as best chances for
isolated showers/thunderstorms shift to being along the Montana
and Wyoming border regions. Outside of that 10-20% chance of
showers and storms in the mountains, dry conditions are expected
elsewhere as zonal flow prevails and temperatures see a warming
trend into the weekend under the increasing influence of high
pressure overhead. This will be the going trend as we finish out
the week as monsoonal moisture remains to our south and a
series of shortwave troughs remain situated further north. Given
our position here in the Intermountain West in between these
two features, dry conditions are expected to continue outside of
some isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in that 10-20%
chance range each afternoon, primarily in the mountains, with
high temperatures remaining steady each day in the 80s/90s. The
latest CPC 8-14 Day Outlooks keep this trend going with a 50-60%
chance of above normal temperatures and 33-40% chance of below
normal precipitation from Sunday July 20th to Saturday July 26th.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the period as a ridge of
high pressure aloft continues to dominate. A weak disturbance
rotating around the periphery of this ridge may generate a few
isolated (10-20% chance) showers or thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening over portions of the Central Mountains and
along the MT Divide, but these are expected to remain
north/northeast of all terminals. Winds will increase diurnally
this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 kts at KPIH, KIDA, and KBYI,
before subsiding around sunset this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Warmer and dry conditions (in terms of humidity) will continue
into Monday. A couple of "weak waves" will shift across central
and eastern Idaho today and tomorrow. This will do 2 things:
help kick off a few dry thunderstorms and provide an uptick in
wind both days. Looking at thunderstorm potential, the most
likely area for isolated storms today is from around Copper
Basin through Gilmore Summit and east toward Island Park. A
storm around Challis and Salmon are also not out of the
question. There is a 30% chance or less of gusts over 35 mph
with storms and a very low chance of outflow gusts reaching 45
mph. For Monday, the potential is there generally north of a
Copper Basin to Palisades line. A few storms are also possible
across the South Hills and Albion Mountains. There is a 50%
chance or less of gusts over 35 mph, with some gusts over 50 mph
possible. The most likely area for the strongest winds will be
across the Arco Desert through Island Park. Looking at the
overall wind situation, gusts up to 25 mph are possible across
the INL (410), Magic Valley 425) and South Hills/Albion
Mountains (427). We will be CLOSE in terms hitting critical fire
weather condition thresholds this afternoon and evening. Winds
are stronger and more widespread on Monday. Outside of across
Zone 411, gusts of 25-35 mph will be common. The strongest gusts
are across the central mountains (475/476), Upper Snake Plain
(410), Magic Valley (425) and South Hills/Albion Mountains
(427). We tried to nudge the Blend of Models a bit higher based
on some the higher end gusts shown in the probability forecasts.
There is still a 10-30% of higher than 35 mph in these areas,
so there is room to adjust the forecast either direction. We may
indeed need RED FLAG WARNINGS for Monday in some areas, but
will let day shift folks coordinate with dispatch centers and
the GACC on that. Low pressure drops south in the northwestern
U.S., bringing some quick relief in terms of hotter and drier
conditions. We do trade that off though for more widespread
gusty winds and a better chance of showers and storms,
especially closer to the Montana border. This pattern continues
through midweek, although with the flow becoming more
westerly...we do lose the thunderstorm potential except across
Zone 411 in the northeast corner. We do return to warmer
temperatures though later in the week, although we may not end
up thunderstorm-free during that stretch. Stay tuned.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for IDZ425-427.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...MacKay
AVIATION...KB
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes