217
FXUS61 KRNK 011847
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
247 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system in the Mid Mississippi Valley will track east
to night and Sunday bringing showers and thunderstorms to the
region. Daily showers and thunderstorms continue for the region
through Thursday, before drier weather returns for the end of the
week. After Sunday, temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal for much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Key message:

   - Showers and isolated thunderstorms return for late tonight into
     Sunday

A short wave and the associated showers and thunderstorms over the
Tennessee Valley was spreading high clouds into the area today.
Cloud cover will continue to increase overnight. Will be using a
blend of the 3km NAM and RAP guidance for the leading edge of
precipitation tonight.

Low level wind will be out of the south-southwest tonight and Sunday
with increasing wind speeds over the mountains by early Sunday
morning. Precipitable water values this morning were in the 0.25 to
0.50 inch range. Expecting a quick return of deeper moisture with
precipitable water from 1.0 to 1.5 inches by the end of the day
Sunday. Air mass will be saturating from the top down and this may
delay the onset of the precipitation compared to the timing
suggested in the models. Confidence high that any rainfall will
remain west of Virginia and North Carolina through 03Z/11PM.

All the cloud cover tonight and surface dew points rising into the
upper 40s to mid 50s will result in warmer minimum temperatures than
the past couple of mornings. Similarly, the clouds and precipitation
on Sunday morning will prevent a large rise in temperatures. Models
were not showing much clearing behind the short wave on Sunday.
Maybe enough in the mountains to allow for enough heating and
instability to support the development of thunderstorms in the late
afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1. Chances for mainly daily afternoon showers and storms.

We start out with a departing upper shortwave and some brief ridging
to the area for Sunday night into Monday so there should be a
decrease in shower/storm activity during the period with a low end
chance for some diurnally driven development Monday afternoon. For
Tuesday into Tuesday night, there doesn`t look to be any key feature
to weigh into for influencing the area as there could either be
split flow aloft, continued weak ridging, or possible moisture
advection with a weak wave approaching from the west. Will keep it
general chance for convection given the various
solutions/uncertainty.

Max temps Monday should be a bit above climo norms, then warmer for
Tuesday especially if there is any continued weak ridging.

Forecast confidence is medium.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. More widespread shower/storm chances for Wednesday and possibly
Thursday.

2. Drier conditions or less convective activity finally could return
Friday.

For Wednesday, stronger enhanced moisture advection and an elongated
front looks to phase with an amplifying upper broad trough mainly NW
of the area near the upper plains and Great Lakes, and a weaker
shortwave piece of energy that could push across the TN Valley/Mid-
Atlantic. This should be our next greater chance for more widespread
or organized showers and storms. A secondary weaker front could
traverse into the area on the heels of the Wednesday system along
the transitioning NW flow in the southern extent of a possible very
broad and deep closed upper low. Of all days, Friday could be the
driest if we get a push of reduced humidity behind that second
fropa. Uncertainty exists thereafter with the evolution of the
upper low and what waves may come across its south.

Max temps progged to be near to above normal during period.

Forecast confidence is medium.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Widespread VFR continues through 12Z/8AM Sunday.

A short wave and the associated showers and thunderstorms over
the Tennessee Valley was spreading high clouds into the area
today. Cloud cover will continue to increase overnight. Will be
using a blend of the 3km NAM and RAP guidance for the leading
edge of precipitation tonight.

Low level wind will be out of the south-southwest tonight and Sunday
with increasing wind speeds over the mountains by early Sunday
morning. Precipitable water values this morning were in the 0.25 to
0.50 inch range. Expecting a quick return of deeper moisture with
precipitable water from 1.0 to 1.5 inches by the end of the day
Sunday. Air mass will be saturating from the top down and this may
delay the onset of the precipitation compared to the timing
suggested in the models. Ceilings will remain VFR through at
least 12Z/8AM Sunday and perhaps all the way through 18Z/2PM
Sunday. Confidence high that any rainfall will remain west of
Virginia and North Carolina through 03Z/11PM.

Models were not showing much clearing behind the short wave on
Sunday. Maybe enough in the mountains to allow for enough
heating and instability to support the development of
thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening.

Average confidence for wind, visibility, and ceiling.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly VFR through the week but showers/storms may bring
periods of sub- VFR conditions, along with the potential for
morning valley fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...AMS/BMG