486
FXUS61 KRNK 100648
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
248 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front wish push through the area this morning bringing
cooler air and gusty winds. A few showers will also be possible
through Saturday. Dry high pressure is expected on Monday,
followed by a widespread probability of precipitation Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Cold front crosses through the region today.

2) Gusty winds and cooler temperatures.

A cold front is in the process of crossing the area this
morning. A few showers associated with the front continue early
this morning, but will taper off by daybreak.

Winds become gusty behind the front today, generally out of the
WNW and perhaps a few gusts to 30mph are possible in the higher
elevations. Along with gusty winds, drier dew points will push
in throughout the day, so will have a much drier feel to the
air.

With the passage of the upper low, could have some afternoon
showers develop, with perhaps an isolated chance of a rumble of
thunder across the Piedmont areas where heating will be the
greatest.

Winds subside a bit overnight and temperatures drop into the
40s. A few low 40s possible in the highest elevations.



&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for cooler conditions this weekend.

2) Mountain rain showers will be possible during Saturday afternoon
into Sunday morning.

A cold front will exit offshore on Friday night, while a broad upper
level trough enters the Mid Atlantic. After the recent stretch of
warm and moist conditions, temperatures will turn noticeably cooler.
Morning lows throughout this weekend should fall into the 40s for
most locations with some upper 30s likely in the sheltered mountain
valleys. The wind will become breezy from the west to northwest with
gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible in the higher elevations during the
daytime hours of Saturday and Sunday.

Rotating around the periphery of the broad upper level trough will
be a shortwave trough that should dive southeastward from the Great
Lakes on Saturday. As it reaches the Appalachian Mountains by
Saturday afternoon, rain showers will spread along and west of the
Blue Ridge. The upslope northwest flow should keep the showers
lingering through Saturday night before fading by Sunday morning.
High pressure will build eastward by late Sunday to provide dry
weather throughout the Mid Atlantic.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for warmer conditions by next week.

2) Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will return with the
highest odds possible by Tuesday.

Monday should start dry with high pressure across the Mid Atlantic.
The high should head offshore later in the day to provide warm air
advection and moisture advection from southwest flow. However, this
increase in warmth and moisture will combine with an approaching low
pressure system in the central Mississippi River Valley to spark
shower and thunderstorm chances over the next couple days. Isolated
convection may reach the southern Blue Ridge and far southwest
Virginia by Monday night, but the greatest odds for showers and
thunderstorms appears to be Tuesday. Moisture will linger through
Wednesday, but the abundant cloud cover might somewhat limit the
thunder chances. Weak high pressure could bring a brief reprieve
during Thursday morning, but another low pressure system may
approach from the west by late Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

As the cold front passes through this morning, surface and low-
level winds turn from the southwest to west, then with a second
short wave, winds become northwest this afternoon. Models
suggesting some stronger gusts through this evening. Should be
around 20-25kts with highest gusts near ROA/TNB/HSP.

Upslope stratocu appears likely today across the WV mountains
so some sub-VFR at BLF/LWB expected.

A few showers possible but coverage is too low overall to have
in the tafs.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

Expecting MVFR showers, mainly in the mountains into Saturday.
Some upslope mountain showers may occur Saturday night. VFR
conditions are expected Sunday and Monday under dry, high
pressure. The probability of precipitation and sub-VFR ceilings
and visibilities increases on Tuesday ahead of a low pressure
system in the central United States.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG