164
FXUS63 KTOP 011942
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
242 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm/rain chances move in later this evening and overnight.

- Active pattern continues Sunday and through Wednesday with
  rain/storm chances daily.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

- Periodic thunderstorm chances through Tuesday night

- Overall drier and mild period Wednesday into next weekend

Recent water vapor imagery showing modest zonal flow over the bulk
of the region. Weak surface high pressure over western Missouri has
kept wind fields light with lingering shallow cumulus. Gusty south
winds returned to western Kansas downstream of a weak upper wave
with a cluster of early-day thunderstorms just east of COS.

Thunderstorm-conducive parameters will generally increase through
Tuesday afternoon. Diurnal convection over the High Plains should
become more robust today and more so Sunday afternoon as zonal flow
persists and moisture becomes richer. A modest low-level jet and
MUCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg could be enough to sustain convection
this far west tonight into early Sunday, but CAMs are showing
considerable differences between each other and run-to-run. MUCAPE
nears 2000 J/kg Sunday night with a slightly stronger low-level jet
for better thunderstorm chances Sunday night into Monday morning.
Tonight`s activity appears to be more of a hail concern while
various CAMs show a more intense squall line for a wind and hail
threat Sunday night. Both Sunday and Monday daytime periods bring at
least small thunderstorm chances with some potential for outflow
boundaries to linger and provide a convective focus.

A stronger upper wave moves east across the Dakotas Tuesday,
dragging a cold front through Kansas. This should provide the best
thunderstorm chances of this forecast with considerable instability
thanks to dewpoints around 70F. Modest northwest upper flow becomes
the rule Tuesday night into next weekend with a cooler and drier
airmass in place. There will be some potential for warm-air
advection-supported precipitation by Friday night as moisture works
back north into the High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Limiting stratus deck has lifted to a stratocu field.
Additional heating should allow for rising heights and moderate
to high confidence in VFR conditions by 19Z. Main concern for
later periods is thunderstorm chances. Models showing
significant variability so have left any mention out at this
point. Stronger wind fields and at least some mid/high cloud
should keep a repeat of diurnal stratus and fog in check.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage