-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
381
FXUS64 KAMA 272132
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
432 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Through tonight, the upper level ridge of high pressure has temporarily
flattened and become depressed south of the forecast area. This has
caused the upper level flow to become more zonal or westerly, and should
steer most showers and thunderstorms generally eastward compared to
the past few days. The latest crop of showers and storms has begun
developing over southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the
western OK Panhandle. Given the overall upper level zonal flow, it
appears the OK Panhandle and far northern Texas Panhandle will have
the best chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the evening
hours, with values lowering southward through the southern Texas
Panhandle. Pops were created in this manner. It appears some drier
air at the surface and aloft may move into southwest sections of the
Texas Panhandle based on latest short range models, and this may limit
precipitation formation. A few storms may become strong to severe,
with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards. Also, the
strongest storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, which
may lead to flooding or flash flooding.

For Friday and Friday night, heights rise some as the upper level ridge
of high pressure reasserts itself over the southern plains. This will
result in another day of high temperatures near or exceeding 100 degrees
across most of the area. Additional Heat Advisories may be needed in
locations where the Heat Index or temperature equals or exceeds 105
degrees. The cap may strengthen through the day on Friday so have kept
pops below mentionable for this package. Pops return Friday night with
highest values across north central and northeastern sections as a weak
cold front moves through the OK Panhandle and most of the northern
Texas Panhandle by 12Z Saturday.

02
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

For Saturday and Saturday night, the aforementioned weak cold
front is slated to move through the southern Texas Panhandle
Saturday morning and stall near or just south of the forecast
area. Otherwise, the upper level ridge of high pressure is
progged to remain intact across the southern plains. A minor upper
level shortwave trof is forecast to round the top of the ridge
and across the northern sections late Saturday afternoon and
night. Given sufficient daytime heating and atmospheric instability,
this feature, coupled with the close proximity of the weak cold
frontal boundary and ample moisture should result in the development
of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and night. A few
storms may become severe during the late afternoon and evening
hours, with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards in
addition to heavy rainfall and the corresponding potential for
flooding or flash flooding.

Precipitation chances diminish on Sunday as the upper level ridge
of high pressure remains anchored over the southern plains. The
ridge is progged to slide to the east of the region on Tuesday and
Wednesday with our forecast area on the western flank of this
ridge. The associated southwest flow aloft should help steer
moisture associated with the summer monsoon into the area with
chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday night and
Wednesday. NBM pops and temperatures reflect the above reasoning
and were accepted for all periods of the long term forecast.

02
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

For the 18Z TAFs, another round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to develop late this afternoon and evening across the
region. Based on latest model guidance, it appears KGUY will have
the greatest likelihood of being impacted, and have included VCTS
at the site for this evening since confidence is highest. Confidence
is lower with respect to impacts at KDHT and KAMA, so have omitted
mention at this time. Adjustments to this forecast may be needed
once the next round of precipitation develops.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Amarillo TX                76 101  72  96 /  10  10  20  20
Beaver OK                  75 103  69  90 /  40  10  40  20
Boise City OK              69  97  66  85 /  40  10  20  30
Borger TX                  79 105  74 100 /  20  10  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              75 103  71  94 /  20  10  20  20
Canyon TX                  74 100  72  94 /  10  10  10  20
Clarendon TX               75 101  76  97 /  10  10  10  20
Dalhart TX                 70 100  67  88 /  30  10  20  30
Guymon OK                  72 101  67  88 /  40  10  30  20
Hereford TX                74 102  72  96 /  10   0  10  20
Lipscomb TX                78 104  72  96 /  20  10  30  20
Pampa TX                   77 102  73  96 /  10  10  20  20
Shamrock TX                76 104  76 100 /  10   0  10  20
Wellington TX              77 105  78 101 /  10   0  10  20
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&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...02