-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
310
FXUS61 KBGM 191848
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
248 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions with scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected through the entire week. A break in
the heat may not come until the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update:

Isolated convection will continue at times into tonight mainly
extending from the western Finger Lakes to the Upper Mohawk
Valley where lingering boundaries exist amongst better broad
scale lift south of the prevailing westerlies. Diurnal
stabilization should end best chances, but persistent high
dewpoints will still provide fuel for any rogue meso convective
system that rides the ridge later on. Not seeing any indications
of this to be confident, but a primed atmosphere will do what
it wants.

Ridge flattens further on Thursday with stronger westerlies
expected to dip across northern NY. Once again, hot and humid
conditions will prevail, however, confidence is higher that
thunderstorms may be a little more intense and numerous than
the past several days. Strong low level lapse rates will exist
with max CAPE values likely nearing 2500 to 3000 J/kg. With the
stronger flow aloft moving in, 0-6 km bulk shear will increase
to around 20 to 25 knots, which should be enough to support a
better organization of convection than today. Locally damaging
winds will be the main threat. Also, PWATs will again be in the
99th percentile range and short Corfidi vectors of less than 10
knots suggest heavy down pours and back building thunderstorms
will be possible, with a threat for localized flash flooding.

A continuation of warm and muggy conditions at night will
continue Thursday night and with a weak stationary front in the
area, shower and thunderstorm chances will linger into the
evening.

Lows in the 70s and highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s will
persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
250 PM Update...

High pressure recedes to the southwest with an upper level ridge
resting over our region. Along this ridge a few disturbances move
through with a weak stalled frontal system. This leads to the
possibility for showers and thunderstorms to develop especially
during peak heating hours. Although models are trending drier
Friday morning, so pulled back on pops. Instability parameters
show CAPE values up to 1,700 J/Kg with marginal wind shear. This
suggests strong to severe storms are possible with isolated
damaging wind being the primary threat. However, any slower-
moving storms can produce heavy rainfall with PWAT values
anywhere from 1.5 to nearly 2.0 inches across the area.
Placement of the frontal system, cloud cover and shower
development will lead to a challenging temperature forecast for
Friday. Highs are expected to range in the mid 80s to lower 90s
in northeast PA and the Southern Tier of NY. Lows will follow
this same pattern with overnight temperatures ranging in the mid
60s to low 70s across the area.

Quasi-stationary front lingers over the region on Saturday before
lifting Saturday night. This allows additional showers and
thunderstorms to develop especially during peak heating hours.
Depending on the timing of when the front lifts will impact the
temperature forecast. As of now temperatures are forecasted to range
higher in the mid to upper 80s west of I-81, with highs ranging
in the low to mid 80s east.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
250 PM Update...

Upper level ridge begins to break down on Sunday as an upper level
trough starts to nudge into the region along with a surface cold
front. This brings potential for additional showers and
thunderstorms to develop ahead of the system as moisture gets
advected into our region. There is uncertainty in the timing of
the frontal passage, it appears to move through Sunday night
into Monday morning. Regardless cooler air will begin to filter
in early next week providing relief to the region. Upper trough
slowly tracks east Monday allowing another opportunity for
shower and thunderstorms to develop under this pattern. Brief
ridge along with surface high pressure builds in on Tuesday with
dry conditions anticipated at this time. Models begin to diverge
towards the end of the period, but another system could creep in
by Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm and humid conditions continue to prevail under high
pressure with VFR expected for the bulk of the forecast period.
However, subtle boundaries and differential terrain heating will
keep triggering isolated convection into tonight. TCF indicated
thunderstorm chances extending into the KSYR area later this
afternoon which is backed up in the model forecasts so this is
the only airport I included future convection with a slightly
higher confidence of occurring. Isolated cells in the vicinity
of KRME should remain away from the runways, and only be an
impact for the first hour or so. T-storms should wane after dark
and confidence of any future upstream convection impacting the
region is low. More thunderstorms will be developing on
Thursday, but again confidence is too low at this point to
include late in the forecast period but after 15Z-16Z Thursday
becomes more possible.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Sunday...Spotty restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JAB/MPK