-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
940
FXUS61 KBGM 181710
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
110 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions with afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected through the week. A break in the
heat may not come until the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
1250 PM Update:

Cloud cover from convective debris and some cirrus have kept
temperatures a bit lower than previously forecasted, but dew
points are actually a bit higher than previously forecasted.
Made some minor adjustments to these, but forecast heat indices
remain nearly the same for this afternoon.

1105 AM Update:

Made some adjustments to PoPs for the remainder of this morning
through this afternoon, as some isolated thunderstorms have
already popped up due to ample instability. Similar to
yesterday, some of these storms may become strong to severe,
with gusty to damaging winds as the main threat. With slow storm
motions and elevated PWATs, some of these thunderstorms may
cause in localized flash flooding, so this will be monitored as
well.

545 AM Update...

Updated HWO to include the chance for strong thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Main concern is localized damaging winds
and flash flooding. Forecast soundings are showing some CIN
today, but plenty of instability if the cap can be broken. CAPE
of up to 3000 J/kg will be possible by the time we hit max
heating this afternoon. Upstream MCV could act as the catalyst
that kicks storms off again this afternoon across the area.
Considering the weak shear, main threat will be from collapsing
cores (downbursts) from the strongest storms. PWATs will
approach 2 inches and storms will be slow moving with weak flow
aloft, which could produce prolonged heavy downpours leading to
localized flash flooding.

350 AM Forecast...

Today the heat and humidity will increase across the region and
heat advisories remain in effect. Similar to yesterday,
thunderstorms will likely pop up during the afternoon and
persist into the evening. With dew point temperatures climbing
into the 70s and high temperatures well into the 90s, a very
unstable atmosphere will be in place once again due to the
strong heating. CAPE of 2500 to 3000 J/kg is likely. The
NAMNest, which handled the convection yesterday quite well, is
showing isolated to scattered thunderstorm development again
this afternoon, especially west of the I81 corridor. Any weak
perturbation riding up and over the ridge will be enough to kick
off storms today. Very little wind shear will be present,
however, forecast soundings show an inverted V, so there will
likely be some downburst potential if any cores can get high
enough before collapsing.

Another warm and rather muggy night is in store for the region
with variable amounts of mainly mid level clouds and a light
southerly wind. Some lingering thunderstorms overnight appears
like a possibility as CAPE will remain high in the 2000+ J/kg
range.

Wednesday, sticking with persistence for the forecast...hot,
humid and a chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorms

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
110 PM Update:

The short term period will feature more of the same weather; hot
and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms as multiple
waves move around the periphery of the dominating ridge. This
creates a bit of a challenging forecast for temperatures, as it
is possible that clouds from thunderstorms/convective debris may
hold back temperatures a bit in spots, yet also increase dew
points. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s are
expected on Thursday, with perhaps slightly cooler temperatures
on Friday with a greater chance of seeing afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. With ample CAPE in place, some thunderstorms may
become strong to severe both days. Limited shear will be present
on Thursday, but shear increases a bit on Friday, especially
along and north of the NY Thruway corridor.

While the current heat advisory goes through Thursday, it is
possible that this may need to be extended to include Friday at
a later time.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
110 PM Update:

Not much has changed in the long term period with more of the
same expected during the weekend (hot and humid with scattered
showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon). By
Sunday, the ridge starts to finally break down, but with an
approaching shortwave and cold front, coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will increase a bit Sunday and Sunday night. Then
temperatures cool down a bit for the beginning of next week, but
still remain a bit above normal. Depending on the timing of the
cold front, scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into
Monday, before conditions dry out for Tuesday as high pressure
moves in.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fog has set in at ELM, however it should dissipate in the first
hour or two of the forecast. Otherwise. mostly VFR conditions
are expected today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will be
popping up across the area again today this afternoon and
evening, however, confidence is too low at this time to add in
the TAF at any one location. Winds will be light through the
period outside of any showers or thunderstorms.


Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...Spotty restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, with probabilities increasing slowly
in the later part of the period.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...BJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MPK