-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
242
FXUS61 KBGM 140722
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
322 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold frontal passage on Friday will bring showers and a
chance of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. High
pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
640 PM Update...
Overall little change to the forecast this evening. Winds were
adjusted down in the valleys overnight with chances of
precipitation delayed a few more hours as the rain showers west
of us have not progressed as fast as models had indicated

330 pm update...

A large high is off the coast which provided us with dry warmer
weather today. The high is moving further southeast. A strong
cold front over the upper Midwest and eastern Ontario moves
southeast tonight to move through our area Friday and Friday
evening. The models have slowed down the speed of the front an
hour or two otherwise the parameters are about the same.
Moisture and heat will be in place ahead of the front with
dewpoints in the 60s and highs 70s in CNY to low 80s for NEPA
valleys. Several waves move through making the timing difficult.
The twin tiers and NEPA could get a few rounds of convection.
Showers and thunderstorms move into our northern counties late
tonight but then die before getting far south. Midday convection
forms over south central NY and moves southeast well ahead of
the front. More convection is possible with the front late
afternoon in the twin tiers. The better chance of severe weather
is in NEPA and Sullivan County during the afternoon into the
early evening. This area with have the most heating and
instability. Cape will peak around 1k Joules. Deep bulk shear
will be 40 to 50 kts. Values will rise through the day.
Lines and clusters of showers and thunderstorms will be
progressive and moving at around 35 kts. The SPC continues with
the slight chance of severe weather for damaging winds across
the far south with marginal in south central NY.

Precipitable water values peak around 1.6 inches. Given the dry
period of the last few days and vegetation in full swing, we
would need 2 inches or more in an hour before any flash flooding
happens, unless it falls on an urban area. We disagree with the
marginal risk of excessive rainfall from WPC.

Friday night the upper level trough is moving east into the area
with cold air aloft. Skies will clear and temperatures will fall
into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will be over the region Saturday night through Sunday
night. Mainly clear skies and light winds will result. Some patchy
fog can not be ruled out Sunday morning where rain occurs this
afternoon and evening but for most locations the amount of drier air
coming in should prevent full saturation. A chilly start Sunday with
lows in the 40`s followed by fairly pleasant highs in the 70`s.
Temperatures start to trend warmer Sunday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure should gradually shift south and east of the region.
However, this will develop a fairly strong upper level ridge across
our area. Outside of the stray shower or thunderstorm due to heating
of the day, a fairly long dry period is expected through Thursday.
With southerly flow the airmass will become increasingly hot and
humid with the transition day on Monday. We are going a bit lower
than the new 00Z 6/14 ECMWF which would imply several days with
highs around 100 for most of the region and even higher heat index
values. This would be a high impact and crushing heat wave for the
region.

However, even the ensemble blend nudged slightly warmer is still
giving highs well into 90`s for most of the region Tuesday through
Thursday resulting in a heat wave. This will be compounded by
overnight lows only falling into the upper 60`s and low 70`s.
Dewpoints may mix out and trend slightly lower in the afternoons
given inverted V soundings. Even taking that into account the
forecast projects widespread 100 degree heat index values Tuesday
through Thursday afternoons.

A reminder that the definition of a heat wave officially is three
days or longer with highs of 90 degrees or higher. Giving the
increasing confidence of a heat wave, now is the time to make plans
and organize supplies to beat the heat next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front moves through from north to south early Friday
morning and through the day. Showers and storms will accompany
the front, but ceilings look to remain VFR even with convective
activity due to these storms likely to be scattered. We included
a PROB group in each of the terminals, but confidence on actual
storm initiation due to decreased instability for their
respective times, especially for NY terminals, is rather low.
We`ll re-evaluate for the 12Z package for storm probabilities.

S-SW winds drop less than 8 knots overnight. Winds shift to
west on Friday at 5 to 10 kts with some gustiness. A period of
LLWS affects KRME, KSYR, and KITH during the overnight as core
of winds pushes into the region over the up valley SE wind
direction.

Outlook...

Friday night...Ceilings becoming VFR. Areas of dense valley fog
restrictions possible late.

Saturday through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/TAC
NEAR TERM...AJG/TAC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...KL