-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
962
FXUS61 KBGM 182358
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
758 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is expected to continue to dominate the region
through the rest of the week and into the weekend with mainly
dry and mild weather conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
645 PM Update...

Made minor adjustments to increase dew points based on the
latest observations. Sky cover was also adjusted based on the
latest satellite imagery, ranging from partly to mostly cloudy
out there. A few isolated light showers are possible across the
Poconos of NE PA over the next hour or two, then is should
remain dry areawide overnight. Kept the valley fog in the
forecast for late tonight into early Thursday morning; but we
will need to see the clouds clear before this can form effectively.


Otherwise, after some morning clouds/fog Thursday looks to
becoming mostly sunny. Bumped temperatures up a degree or two
for Thursday based on the latest guidance, which brings it into
the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations; perhaps touching
the mid-80s for the urbanized valley areas.

213 PM update...

The quiet weather continues this evening through at least
Thursday night as a ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec
south into the central and eastern Great Lakes remains the
dominant feature through the region.

An elongated area of low pressure extending from just off the
NJ coast southwest into NC/SC remains the primary mechanism for
scattered rain showers and a few weak thunderstorms over parts
of PA and even a few very light rain showers into the central
southern tier of NY this afternoon. So, the northern edge of the
Allegheny Plateau and parts of the Poconos cannot be ruled out
for a brief light rain shower through this evening. However most
of the region should remain under mostly cloudy skies and
altogether dry. Afternoon high temperatures today will top out
in the upper 60s and lower 70s where cloud cover remains
thick...and into the mid to upper 70s where more sun will be
seen to the north/nw.

Some clearing will occur later today and tonight as the low
pressure off the coast shifts eastward and high pressure/dry air
move in from the west/nw. The clearing tonight will lead to
efficient cooling and temperatures dropping into the low to mid
50s...possibly some upper 40s again in the Catskills. The cool
air mass and clear skies with light winds will also lead to more
valley fog formation later tonight and into Thur morning.

Fog will lift and mix out by 8-9 AM and leave partly sunny to partly
cloudy skies with mainly high thin clouds streaming NE to SW across
the region on the back side of the departing system off the coast.
There is expected to be less cloud cover on Thursday and the high
pressure will be building in as well, which will lead to slightly
warmer afternoon highs...into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

More clearing and overnight lows in the 50s Thursday night along
with areas of valley fog again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
145 PM Update...
Warm and mainly dry pattern continues, though spotty showers
could occur at times east of Interstate 81.

Friday through Saturday, light cyclonic flow around the
periphery of the disorganized yet stacked wobbling coastal low
may still attempt to get spotty showers against the Poconos-
Catskills and perhaps as far west as I-81 but mostly east. More
cloud cover, and somewhat cooler temperatures, will also be in
these same areas. Most of the time and area, dry conditions will
continue with temperatures still slightly above normal. Friday
in particular will still be on the warm side, with highs of
upper 70s-lower 80s along and west of I-81, and even along the
NY Thruway.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
145 PM Update...
High pressure will initially be in the control, though with time
chances of showers will enter the picture.

Surface high pressure will hold on for awhile, but aloft there
are model disagreements for whether and when waves will crash
through the ridge. If nothing else, this will hold temperatures
down to near normal, and increase cloud cover. Some model runs
even yield rain as early as Monday, though midweek will be the
more probable time for rain chances to start climbing. Overall
not seeing any high impact weather at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
758 PM Update

Expecting VFR conditions to persist through the period with
widespread high clouds this evening, thinning out tonight with
another round of valley fog that should impact ELM with IFR or
worse conditions beginning between about 05-08z Thursday, then
forecast to be prevailing between 08z to 13Z Thursday morning.
After the vallley fog dissipates it will be VFR with just some
scattered mid/high level clouds around, but generally mostly
sunny conditions through the day on Thursday.

Surface winds will be light, east-northeast or variable through
the period; less than 10 kts.

.Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog
possible at ELM during the early morning hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJT/MJM
NEAR TERM...BJT/MJM
SHORT TERM...KL/MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MJM