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984
FXUS64 KBRO 211134 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
634 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Strong mid-level ridging will remain anchored over Texas and
northern Mexico today into tonight. The 500mb ridge will then begin
to flatten out and shift to the east on Sunday. The steady onshore
flow will continue to maintain near to slightly above normal high
temperatures through the weekend. The combination of heat and
elevated humidity will support to "feel like" temperatures between
100 to 107 degrees, a few locations could briefly reach 110, this
afternoon. Slightly lower dewpoints on Sunday should lead to lower
"feel like" temperatures between 98 to 105 degrees Sunday afternoon.
WPCs experimental heat risk shows a moderate risk for all areas of
Deep South Texas, except the immediate coastline for this afternoon.
Tonight will be warm with lows falling into the mid to upper 70,
except for the lower 80s along the coast.

Differential heating and weak sea-breeze may produce isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms later this morning into the
afternoon. Slightly drier air arrives tonight into Sunday (PWATs
fall to below 1.4 to 1.7 inches). Another around of isolated
convection is possible on Sunday, mainly across the Low to Mid
Valley.

The rip current risk will remain low through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Elongated 500 mb high pressure, initially centered over the Texas
and Louisiana border, will become increasingly stretched as it
shifts into the Eastern Seaboard. This will allow a mid-level
trough of low pressure, and subsequent closed 500 mb low, to
become more dominant over the Lone Star State and northern Mexico.
Overall, decent tropical moisture, daytime heating, and the
proximity of the trough and closed low will combine within the BRO
CWFA to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the
period, with the greatest chance for precipitation occurring on
Wednesday and Thursday. With precipitable water values ranging
between 1.5 and 2 inches, heavy rain is not anticipated to be an
issue.

Temperature-wise, no extreme values are expected, with daytime
highs and overnight lows in the near to slightly above normal
range. Thus, neither a HEAT ADVISORY nor a SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT for heat indices is likely to be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Light east to southeast winds with some passing low clouds
prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Mostly VFR
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Isolated to
scattered seabreeze showers and thunderstorms are possible, but
confidence is not high enough to include HRL/MFE in the TAF
package. Light to moderate east to southeast winds are expected
through the period.
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&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Broad high pressure across the Gulf will continue to provide
light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds and low
seas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible and
could result in briefly elevated winds and seas.

(Sunday Night through Friday)
Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail
through Wednesday night along the Lower Texas Coast courtesy of
high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not expected to be
needed during this time period. However, more adverse conditions,
featuring generally Small Craft Advisory, are anticipated for
Thursday and Friday due to an organizing tropical system in the
central Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             91  78  91  77 /  30   0  20  10
HARLINGEN               92  74  93  73 /  30   0  20   0
MCALLEN                 97  78  96  77 /  20   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         95  76  93  74 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  81  88  81 /  20  10  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  77  90  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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TX...None.
GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...63-KC