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989
FXUS61 KBTV 150530
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
130 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A gorgeous weekend is in store with high temperatures in the 60s and
70s and low humidity. This will be short-lived as a long-duration
heat event moves in next week. Combined with high humidity, it
will cause heat indexes to approach 100 degrees. Warm overnight
lows will prevent any nighttime relief so heat related impacts
will occur.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 125 AM EDT Saturday...Cool north winds over the area is
dropping the dewpoints and bringing temperatures gradually
downwards. The forecast is on track for a quiet night with main
adjustments to cloud cover. Have a great night!

Previous discussion...
Cooler and drier weather will move in behind this front.
Therefore, lows should fall into the 40s and 50s tonight. Some
boundary layer winds will continue so any fog formation is
unlikely. Skies will clear out tonight and the day tomorrow
should be be basically cloudless. Highs will be in the 60s and
low 70s with low humidity. Winds will go calm tomorrow night and
this will lead to efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures
will fall into the 40s across the region but they should fall
into the mid to upper 30s in the coldest hollows of the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Enjoy the cooler weather
because a long- duration heat event will occur next week.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 PM EDT Friday...We`ve arranged a great day for all the
Fathers in our CWA Sunday. QPF forecasts are calling for no more
than trace in Northern New York. It`s possible we might see a stray
cloudburst, as shown with our widespread 10-15% pops. Temperatures
will be pleasant as well with valley locations reaching into the mid
to upper 70s. This should all provide for a wonderful weekend prior
to the heat building in starting Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 318 PM EDT Friday...A strong heat dome will build in next week,
bringing the most severe heat wave to hit Vermont and Northern New
York in a few years. Models are in good agreement that 500mb heights
will approach 600Dm allowing temperatures to soar into the mid-80s
by Monday and the mid-90s Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. At this
point, we can`t rule out reaching triple digits one of these days.
On the other hand, there are model solutions that show the
development of ridge runner thunderstorms developing which would of
course increase cloud cover and decrease temperatures. With that
said, even if our temperatures underperform the forecast we will
still experience a major heat event. Using our experimental Heat
Risk products, almost our entire CWA is reaching Major or Extreme
risk from Tuesday through Thursday. Please take time this weekend to
prepare for the threat by rescheduling outdoor activities, locating
cooling centers, ensuring you have a hydration plan.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Sunday...Mainly VFR the next 24 hours. Skies
trending clear over the next 3 to 6 hours. North to northwest
winds, mainly 3 to 9 knots through 14z will increase to 6 to 13
knots with few gusts up 20 knots possible, mainly over Vermont
terminals. Winds subside past 23z. Some patchy fog can`t be
ruled out at KSLK as it briefly dipped to 2 1/2SM at KSLK and
noted a TEMPO for 3SM BR from 7z to 10z. Fog may have a higher
chance in the favorable locations beyond 06z Sunday as winds
become calm.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the
middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat
of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 18:
KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 92

June 19:
KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 93
KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 94
KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 92
KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 94

June 20:
KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 97
KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 93
KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 91
KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 92


Record Low Temperatures:

June 16:
KSLK: 32/2020 Forecast 34


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 19:
KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 69

June 20:
KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 70
KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 64

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Kutikoff/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Haynes
CLIMATE...Team BTV