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104
FXUS61 KBTV 182005
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
405 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A period of dangerous heat and humidity will continue across the
region into Thursday. Highs will reach well into the 90s each day,
and overnight temperatures will remain muggy and uncomfortable.
Please be sure to take appropriate precautions to avoid heat stress
through the remainder of this week. Although an isolated
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out Tuesday or Wednesday, greater
chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive late Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 404 PM EDT Tuesday...Dangerous heat is expected to continue
across the region through Thursday with a strong upper level ridge
continue to amplify as it shifts towards the region. Despite the
showers and cloud cover early in the day, temperatures this
afternoon have warmed into the upper 80s and 90s, with heat indices
in the upper 90s to low 100s. This period of prolonged heat will
continue the next couple of days, with a Heat Advisory in effect
until 8PM Thursday. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms may pop
up throughout the afternoon into the evening due with plenty of
available CAPE given the moist airmass and warm temperatures,
although lack of forcing and shear will limit any development.
Overnight lows will continue to be quite warm amd humid, with
temperatures struggling to drop below 70 in several locations, which
will add to the cumulative impacts of the heat. Some patchy fog may
develop overnight, especially across northern New York where rain
had fallen this morning.

Tomorrow looks to be a few degrees hotter than today, with highs
climbing into the 90s and heat indices once again near or exceeding
100F. Experimental NWS HeatRisk highlights the threat well, showing
major to extreme risk of heat related impacts for the middle of this
week. Be sure to practice heat safety by staying hydrated, avoiding
strenuous outdoor activity and checking up on your family, friends,
neighbors, and those most vulnerable to heat. Several CAMs are
showing the development of some isolated to scattered thunderstorms
and showers across the forecast area, particularly along the
periphery of the upper level ridge and across the Adirondacks.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 404 PM EDT Tuesday...Thursday will be the final day of this
early summer heat have with temperatures forecast to range from the
upper 80s along the Canadian border to low/mid 90s across
south/central VT. Relief is in sight though as a weak cold front
remains progged to drop southward through the region during the mid-
day to evening hours. Timing of the front will play a large role in
the forecast temps, as well as the convective potential, which right
now coincides with peak heating. Forecast soundings indicate
1500-2500J/kg of SBCAPE likely, but 0-6km shear isn`t very
impressive. Thoughts are pulse storms will be likely, with heavy
rain and downbursts the greatest threat with DCAPES > 1000 J/kg and
PWATs still up around 2". As the front shifts south of the region
Thursday evening, and with the loss of surface heating, showers and
storms will dissipate but mild and muggy conditions will continue
Thursday night with lows only in the mid/upper 60s for most areas.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 404 PM EDT Tuesday...Brief high pressure looks to build across
southern Ontario and Quebec on Friday, filtering in across northern
zones, but the aforementioned cold front will stall across southern
New England and may provide the focus for additional showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop across Rutland/Windsor counties in
the afternoon. Thereafter for the weekend, several shortwave troughs
will renew chances for showers and isolated storms, with moderate to
heavy rain a possibility as PWATs surge again to near 2".
Temperatures won`t be quite as warm as they currently are, but will
remain above normal in the 80s with dewpoints likely in the 60s so
it will continue to feel quite humid.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions currently prevailing
across all terminals this afternoon, and are expected to
continue throughout most of the forecast period. Some isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon,
although the hit-or-miss nature and limited areal coverage of
any storms that may develop make it hard to pinpoint their exact
location. After some showers across northern New York this
morning, there is a chance for some patchy fog development,
particularly at KSLK although limited it to VCFG due to lack of
confidence. Winds are generally light and southerly during the
forecast period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance
TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the
middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat
of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 18:
KBTV: 97/1994 Forecast 95
KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 92
KPBG: 94/1994 Forecast 91
KMSS: 97/1994 Forecast 93
KSLK: 94/1907 Forecast 90

June 19:
KBTV: 100/1995 Forecast 95
KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 93
KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 92
KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 92
KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 89

June 20:
KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 93
KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 92
KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 90
KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 89
KSLK: 92/1995 Forecast 87


Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 18:
KBTV: 73/1994 Forecast 74

June 19:
KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 74

June 20:
KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 74
KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 65

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...Team BTV