-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
377
FXUS61 KBTV 200540
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
140 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather will remain the theme. On Friday, a
backdoor front will shift southwest across our area. It could
produce a handful of light showers, mainly over Vermont. Weather
conditions will become dry once again heading into next week,
but with more seasonable temperatures of 60s to lower 70s during
the day and lower 40s to lower 50s at night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 132 AM EDT Friday...Thin high clouds are hanging on, and
temperatures are steadily declining. VADs and Whiteface
observations indicate 20 to 30 mph winds aloft, and that is
slowly the development of fog. Indications are that this will
abate before dawn. All else is on track for an otherwise quiet
night.

Excerpt of previous discussion Models continue to depict a back
door cold front backing into our area from the east on Friday,
and some spot showers are possible with this feature. Have
mainly only mentioned a slight chance for showers at this time,
as the current environment is very dry. Any showers that develop
will die down around sunset. Cooler northeast flow will keep
daytime high temperatures around the mid 70s to near 80. Friday
night will be another quiet one with valley fog possible once
again as lows dip into the 50s areawide with some upper 40s in
the colder spots.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 248 PM EDT Thursday...The influence of an off-shore low
will bring the potential for some isolated to scattered showers
during the day Saturday, primarily across southern Vermont and
along the spine of the Green Mountains. Elsewhere, dry
conditions are expected to prevail. Temperatures look to trend
back towards seasonable normals, with high temperatures
generally in the 70s. Overnight lows will be cooler in
comparison to previous nights, generally in the upper 40s into
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 248 PM EDT Thursday...Dry weather will persist for the
second half of the weekend into the beginning of next week as
the region remains under the influence of upper level ridging
and surface high pressure. Temperatures will be neat seasonal
normals, and feel quite fall-like after this recent warmth, with
high temperatures generally in the 60s to lower 70s. Overnight
lows will be cooler as well, mainly in the 40s and low 50s.

Heading into the middle of next week, chances of measurable
precipitation return to the region as a upper level trough digs
into the Great Lakes region, although there is still some
uncertainty as to how quickly the upper level ridge will break
down. Given the uncertainty of these features, continued the
idea of slight chance to chances of showers from the previous
forecast. High temperatures by mid-week will continue to be
rather seasonable, mainly in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Saturday... Mainly VFR, with less than 1/4SM fog
noted at KEFK. Fog may bounce around due to 20 to 25 knot winds
around 1500-3000 ft agl, but these will abate and then fog
should settle in as has been the case the last several nights.
Climate statistics for KEFK indicate a 70 to 80 percent of
VLIFR conditions for at least 3 hours based on present
conditions. So have prevailing 1/2SM with a TEMPO showing some
possible breaks. Otherwise, fog prone sites should see patches
between 07z and 09z, and then more prevailing fog 09z to 13z.
A backdoor front will slide southwest around 15z-21z. A spot
shower is possible, but less than 20 percent probability of
occurrence mostly over Vermont terminals. There will be a
preference for east to northeast winds, but terrain upslope flow
in the afternoon may result in some variability in direction.
Wind speeds will generally be 4 to 8 knots, trending light and
variable after 00z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Neiles/Storm
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Haynes