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102
FXUS61 KBUF 100651
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
251 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A few showers and thunderstorms may impact areas near Lake Erie this
morning, otherwise dry with patchy fog. A cold front will move
western and north- central NY and showers and thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon. A few storms could be severe, with damaging
winds as the main hazard. Drier weather returns for Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Mid-level water vapor imagery shows a trough over eastern Canada
with a plume of moisture along and east of the Appalachians this
morning. A broad weak area of low pressure resides across southern
Ontario and the eastern Great Lakes region with a cold front just to
our west. A few showers from upstream convection will diminish
across far western NY this morning. Thunder is possible across the
western Southern Tier.

The mid-level trough and subsequent surface low will move east
today. Daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s will
result in 1000-1500 J/Kg of CAPE inland from lake breezes. A belt of
25-30kt 0-6km bulk shear will round the trough. Convective
initiation will be focused on lake breeze boundaries ahead of the
main trough and cold front today. Latest SPC Day 1 outlook has a
Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms from the western Southern Tier
to the Finger Lakes region and up into the southern Tug Hill region.
A few storms could produce damaging winds and small hail. Storms
will be moving today and mean RH and PWATS are modest so hydro
concerns remain low. Coverage of showers and storms will weaken from
west to east through the afternoon, however showers and rumble of
thunder may linger south of Lake Ontario.

The mid-level trough will move east of the region Thursday night and
drier air will filter into the region. Light winds at the surface
may cause moisture to pool at the surface and humid conditions with
patchy fog is possible. Mostly dry weather will continue through
the first part of Friday. A southerly flow will begin to advect
moisture into the southern part of the forecast area Friday
afternoon. This may result in widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms south of I- 90, however confidence is low.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A weak mid-level shortwave in the zonal flow aloft passes to our
northwest and north Friday night, and then across the St. Lawrence
Valley by early Saturday morning. This feature may spark a shower or
an isolated thunderstorm overnight, have bump PoPs up a bit over NBM
but it`s `likely` most locales will stay dry. Heat and humidity
continues to build Saturday just ahead of the trough and cold front
that will approach from the upper Great Lakes. Heat index values
will `likely` climb into the mid 90s on Saturday, especially along
the lake plains, Genesee Valley, and Finger Lakes region.
Also...given ample moisture and in concert with diurnal heating, a
shower or isolated thunderstorm will be possible. With the loss of
daytime heating any remaining convection that does fire will weaken
and end Saturday night. Mild and muggy conditions expected Saturday
night with mercury readings only dipping back into the upper 60s to
low 70s.

A stronger shortwave cutting across the upper Great Lakes/SE Ontario
Saturday night is then advertise to drag a cold front through the
Lower Lakes on Sunday, with a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms. We can also expect one more day of heat and humidity
Sunday, with highs solidly in the 80s to low 90s in spots. Behind
the front...weak high pressure begins to build into the region for
Sunday night, with drier weather returning on Monday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Weak surface ridge moves overhead for Monday, with largely dry
weather and somewhat albeit brief cooler conditions. Heat and
humidity then begins to build again on Tuesday, and looks like it
peaks on Wednesday ahead of the next trough and cold front.
ALthough...this will all depend on when the front arrives (timing)
as not all guidance is in lock step. That said...there is some
indication that by the end of the week cooler and dry weather
returns for the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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An elongated area of weak low pressure is located across southern
Ontario into Ohio this morning. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are possible across far western NY. Patchy valley fog
will develop across the western Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes
region and last through daybreak. VFR conditions will continue
outside showers, thunderstorms, and fog. The best chance for IFR or
below is at KJHW, KOLE, and KFZY through daybreak.

The low and subsequent cold front will move through the region
today. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop across east
of the Lakes and from the Niagara Peninsula into the Niagara
Frontier this afternoon. A few storms could be severe with gusty
winds. There is uncertainty with the timing of convective initiation
today. Some hi-res members have convection initiation as early as
16z while some wait until after 18z. Convection may impact KJHW
early this afternoon, then move east of the area. Additional
convection may develop in vicinity of KIAG, KBUF, and KROC this
afternoon.

Activity will move east of the forecast area this evening.
Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast, with patchy fog developing
overnight.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night through Monday...A chance of showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible.
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&&

.MARINE...
Generally light winds and sub-advisory conditions over Lakes Erie
and Ontario through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected to pass over Lake Erie and western Lake
Ontario through this evening. Isolated showers and storms
continue through Thursday morning with another round Thursday
afternoon that could lead to gusty winds and choppy conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Brothers