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348
FXUS61 KBUF 182041
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
441 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain in control across much of New York and
northern New England. This will maintain fair warm weather through
Saturday. While continued dry weather is expected for through the
first half of next week...the passage of a backdoor cold front will
usher slightly cooler conditions.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Fair dry weather will continue through Thursday...as high
pressure will extend across our area from the northeast. Cloud
cover will decrease through the day on Thursday. The exception
to that is some areas of morning low stratus across the Western
Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Some patchy fog will
also be possible in both of these areas, but will also be
dependent on lingering high clouds. Winds pickup some on
Thursday afternoon out of the northeast, but should remain below
10 mph for most of the area. Temperatures tonight will be in
the low to upper 50s. Afternoon temperatures on Thursday warm a
few degrees from today`s values for areas south of Lake Ontario
with less cloud cover expected. Thursday`s afternoon highs will
be in the mid 70s to low 80s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure off the Northeast Coast will remain stagnant
throughout much of the later half of the week and into the start of
the weekend. The deeper moisture associated with the surface low
will continue to remain well east of the area due to mid-level ridge
remaining overhead of the region. Overall this will continue to
promote dry weather across the area Thursday night.

A backdoor cold front will slide southeast across the area Friday
and Friday night, however with the mid-level ridge overhead dry
weather will continue with just an uptick in cloud cover from
northeast to southwest.

Surface high pressure will then extend south Saturday, supporting
warm dry weather across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to extend south across the area
Sunday, maintaining dry warm weather across the forecast area. The
pattern will then become more amplified early next week across the
Great Lakes region as a trough digs into the Midwest with moisture
being advected northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Ensemble means
continue to support showers to move into the region Monday and
linger through Wednesday.

Otherwise, temperatures will gradually cool late this weekend
through the start of next week. Despite the cooling trend,
temperatures will continue to remain above average.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through Thursday. The exception will come
as a result of patchy valley fog across the Western Southern Tier
will be possible tonight...lowering CIGs to IFR at times. Some
additional fog will be possible near KART with the weak northeast
flow tonight. All fog potential will be dependent on cloud cover,
currently expected to have at least some mid to high clouds across
portions of the area.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in control through the end of the work
week maintaining a weak pressure gradient and thus mainly light
winds less than 10 knots and negligible waves. This will also
promote a weak onshore flow to develop each afternoon, with weak
land breeze circulations dominating at night.

A weak backdoor cold front will cross the Lakes late in the week.
This will bring an uptick in the easterly flow for the upcoming
weekend, mainly across Lake Ontario. However, winds should remain
below 15 knots with wave heights remaining less than 2 feet (less
than 3 feet open waters) across the western half of Lake Ontario.
Negligible waves expected elsewhere.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...JM