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498
FXUS61 KBUF 181819
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
219 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control across much of New York and
northern New England keeping any shower activity associated with a
weak area of low pressure meandering northeast along the Mid
Atlantic and Jersey coastline off to our south and southeast through
the second half of the week. A weak backdoor cold front will then
cross the area from northeast to southwest toward the tail end of
the work week with an even stronger area of high pressure building
southwest across the area from eastern Canada keeping dry and only
slightly cooler conditions intact right through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Currently a mixture of mid and high clouds across portions of the
area. Fair weather clouds are developing with daytime heating in
areas where there has been clearing in the higher clouds.
Temperatures are currently in the low to upper 70s, with the coolest
temperatures toward the NY/PA line where clouds cover is more dense.

Dry conditions continue through Thursday across the forecast area.
The only exception to this is the very low potential for a isolated
shower along and just north of the NY/PA border this afternoon.
Light, widely scattered showers across northern PA are on the
very northern fringe of a broken shield of precip. These showers
are associated with a coastal sfc low along the NC/VA coast and
a mid/upper-level low over the central Appalachians.

Elsewhere today, further away from the NY/PA line, mid to high
clouds will be in place, thinning from south to north. Mid level
clouds will thin and showers move away from the NY/PA border later
as the mid/upper level low both weakens and shifts northeast. Winds
will remain light once again today with speeds of around 5 mph
expected. Temperatures will remain above normal with afternoon highs
in the low 70s to low 80s. With thicker mid and high clouds in place
further south, temperatures will be a bit on the cooler side toward
the NY/PA line and warmer for the North Country where more sun is
expected.

Tonight and Thursday, fair, dry weather will continue with the sfc
high to our northeast, extending across the region. Cloud cover will
decrease through the day on Thursday. The exception to that is some
areas of morning low stratus across the Western Southern Tier and
east of Lake Ontario. Some patchy fog will also be possible in both
of these areas, but will also be dependent on lingering high clouds.
Winds pickup some on Thursday afternoon out of the northeast, but
should remain below 10 mph for most of the area. Temperatures
tonight will be in the low to upper 50s. Afternoon temperatures on
Thursday warm a few degrees from today`s values for areas south of
Lake Ontario with less cloud cover expected. Thursday`s afternoon
highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure off the Northeast Coast will remain stagnant
throughout much of the later half of the week and into the start of
the weekend. The deeper moisture associated with the surface low
will continue to remain well east of the area due to mid-level ridge
remaining overhead of the region. Overall this will continue to
promote dry weather across the area Thursday night.

A backdoor cold front will slide southeast across the area Friday
and Friday night, however with the mid-level ridge overhead dry
weather will continue with just an uptick in cloud cover from
northeast to southwest.

Surface high pressure will then extend south Saturday, supporting
warm dry weather across the forecast area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure will continue to extend south across the area
Sunday, maintaining dry warm weather across the forecast area. The
pattern will then become more amplified early next week across the
Great Lakes region as a trough digs into the Midwest with moisture
being advected northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Ensemble means
continue to support showers to move into the region Monday and
linger through Wednesday.

Otherwise, temperatures will gradually cool late this weekend
through the start of next week. Despite the cooling trend,
temperatures will continue to remain above average.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected today through Thursday. Patchy valley
fog across the Western Southern Tier will be possible tonight,
lowering CIGs to IFR at times. Some additional fog will be possible
near KART, with the weak northeast flow tonight. All fog potential
will be dependent on cloud cover, currently expected to have at
least some mid to high clouds across portions of the area.

Winds remain light through Thursday out of the southeast to
northeast.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in control through the end of the work
week maintaining a weak pressure gradient and thus mainly light
winds less than 10 knots and negligible waves. This will also
promote a weak onshore flow to develop each afternoon, with weak
land breeze circulations dominating at night.

A weak backdoor cold front will cross the Lakes late in the week.
This will bring an uptick in the easterly flow for the upcoming
weekend, mainly across Lake Ontario. However, winds should remain
below 15 knots with wave heights remaining less than 2 feet (less
than 3 feet open waters) across the western half of Lake Ontario.
Negligible waves expected elsewhere.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...JM