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208
FXUS61 KBUF 180818
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
418 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain in control across much of New York and
northern New England keeping any shower activity associated with a
weak area of low pressure meandering northeast along the Mid
Atlantic and Jersey coastline off to our south and southeast. A weak
backdoor cold front will then cross the area from northeast to
southwest toward the tail end of the work week with an even stronger
area of high pressure building southwest across the area from
eastern Canada keeping dry and warm conditions intact right through
the upcoming weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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For those doing some pre-dawn moon gazing as it settles toward the
western horizon, just some mainly thin upper level cirrus overhead
for the early morning hours, which continues to provide fairly good
viewing. Patches of thicker cirrus will be present at times the
further south you head toward the NY/PA line, which may make for a
more hazy appearance to the moon, or possibly even obscured at
times. Otherwise, dry weather prevails owed to high pressure over
the region. Lows will bottom out in the 50s for most spots by
sunrise, closer to the 50 degree mark across the interior higher
terrain.

A large upper level storm system centered over the western Carolinas
will continue to direct a wealth of high level clouds across our
region today into at least a portion of tonight, with some mid level
cloud making it northward to near the NY/PA line. Coincidentally,
this is also where the far northern extent of any isolated shower
activity will make it as surface high pressure maintains its grip on
much of New York and northern New England. While a stray sprinkle or
light shower may reach as far north as northcentral/northwestern PA,
do not expect any activity to cross north of the NY/PA line. May see
some echoes showing up on composite radar imagery today over
southern portions of our area, however any precipitation should
remain aloft as it evaporates before hitting the ground while
falling through very dry air in the lower levels. Low pressure will
then move a bit further east tonight pulling any precipitation on
the northwestern periphery of the system well to the southeast of
our region. Our summer-like temperatures will continue with highs
today mainly in the mid and upper 70s. Contrary from the norm, the
warmest temps (low 80s possible) will be found toward the Saint
Lawrence/Black River valleys where there will be more in the way of
sunshine. Meanwhile, low to mid 70s will be common across the
Southern Tier owed to the thicker cloud cover. Lows tonight will
again mainly range through the 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure south of New England will move little during the
period. Deeper moisture associated with the coastal low will remain
east of the area, as a mid level ridge continues to hold over the
region. Light winds will become northeast behind a backdoor cold
front Friday. An uptick in clouds will increase from northeast to
southwest Friday through Friday night.

Temperatures remain above normal, highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will extend south Saturday through Sunday
which should maintain dry and warm weather across the forecast area.
Ensemble means show the pattern becoming more amplified early next
week across the Great Lakes region. A trough may dig into the Mid-
West with moisture increasing from the south. Showers may move into
the region Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly trend
down but be above normal through the Long Term period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Widespread VFR flight conditions expected through the 06Z TAF
period, with a couple late night through mid morning exceptions.
Patchy areas of radiation fog along with typical valley fog is
expected into the first part of this morning. This will mainly be
across the Southern Tier (KJHW) and possibly at KART once again as a
light, but cool/moist drainage flow advects southwest down the Saint
Lawrence valley. Per usual however with these scenarios, confidence
in this actually directly impacting the KJHW or KART airfield is not
that high due to the patchy nature of the fog and a weak, sometimes
variable low level wind flow, not to mention the blanket of cirrus
aloft that could have at least some impact.

Outlook...

Tonight through Sunday...Mainly VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
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High pressure will remain in control through the end of the work
week maintaining a weak pressure gradient and thus mainly light
winds and negligible waves. This will also promote a weak onshore
flow to develop each afternoon, with weak land breezes dominating at
night.

A weak backdoor cold front will cross the Lakes late in the week.
This will bring an uptick in the easterly flow for the upcoming
weekend, mainly across Lake Ontario, however winds should remain
below 15 knots with wave heights remaining the less than 2 feet
(less than 3 feet open waters) across the western half of Lake
Ontario. Negligible waves expected elsewhere.
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&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HSK/TMA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM