-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
749
FXUS61 KCTP 080544
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
144 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent Northwest flow aloft with a few embedded upper level
troughs will keep it cooler, breezy and pleasant heading into
the weekend with low humidity. After another round of showers
Sunday morning, we expect a reinforcement of cool air Monday
preceding a warming trend towards the middle and end of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Plenty of high based stratocu and altocu clouds covered much of
Central and Northern PA this evening as a well defined mid
level thermal trough with a positive tilt (from Central NY to
the Middle Ohio River Valley) slides east across the CWA. Latest
RAP guidance shows pockets of 200-300 J/KG SFC-BASED CAPE
associated with this trough and some light spotty showers along
the I-80 corridor.

This area of clouds will gradually spread over the Middle and
Lower Susq Valley before decreasing in coverage late tonight.

Low temps around daybreak Sat in the 50-60F range are within a
few degrees either side of early June climo. Partial clearing
could allow patchy fog to form toward daybreak Saturday in the
deeper east- central valleys, but the dry air and persistent
westerly breeze should maintain good visibility in most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Vertical mixing up to around 5 KFT AGL by Late Sat morning will
be sufficient to mix out most of the lower clouds, leaving some
flat cu and higher based Altocu or Cirrus for the afternoon.

WNW Wind gusts should be in the 20 to 25 mph range during the
late morning and afternoon hours Saturday. With the temporary
departure of the cold pocket of air aloft, afternoon max temps
will be 4 or 5 deg F warmer than today (Friday) with the NW Mtns
seeing a 6-8 deg F rebound. Little day to day temp diff will be
seen across the Lower Susq Valley on Saturday. Saturday`s highs
will be in the 70-80F range from NW to SE across the CWA.

Model consensus continues to indicate the next period of
showers from late Saturday night into Sunday morning as another
shortwave trough and cold front move through the region. The
showers will be most numerous acrs the NW part of the state, and
gradually diminish as the move across the Middle and Lower Susq
Valley. Continued breezy and relatively cool for this time of
year with max/min temps near to below the historical avg. for
early June.

Temps Sunday will dip just a little compared to those on
Saturday. Another moderately breeze day is in store for Sunday
with gusts from the WNW in the low to mid 20s (MPH).

Monday should be the coolest day of the upcoming 7 days.
The approach of a potent shortwave and surface cold front
dropping SE from the Glakes will bring more clouds than sun,
along with some afternoon and evening showers across primarily
the Central and NW 2/3rds of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level troughiness over the northeastern United States
will keep temperatures below normal through Tuesday. After that,
we should see a moderating trend through the mid to late week.

There could be some showers by late week, as cold fronts drop
southeastward across the area. Low level moisture appears to be
limited at this point. However, past experience is that such a
pattern provides the potential for isolated strong storms if
moisture gets advected into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds will gradually weaken as we head into the late evening
hours. Expect CIGS (consisting mainly of high based stratocu and
alto cu) to remain VFR across most of the region. A brief
period of MVFR ceilings is possible at BFD, but opted to leave
it out of the TAFs based on latest upstream observations. Patchy
valley fog will likely develop along and north of I-80 where
rain occurred today and clear skies develop overnight. Have
added vicinity fog to UNV where a quick rain shower around
1130PM at the site may have brought just enough moisture to
create fog toward daybreak.

Winds will pick up again on Saturday just after sunrise. The
depth of vertical mixing increases to 5-6 kft AGL in the late
morning and afternoon hours with peak gusts in the 20 to 25 mph
range). Winds taper off Saturday night as ceilings lower ahead
of a fast moving cold front that will bring a chance of a few
showers Sunday (mainly during the morning hours).

Outlook...

Sun...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns, MVFR cigs linger into midday
north and west of the Allegheny Front. A chance of a few
showers.

Mon-Wed...No sig wx expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Lambert/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir
LONG TERM...Martin/Evanego
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff