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277
FXUS63 KDDC 281017
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
517 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the
northern half of the forecast area this evening. The main concern
with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds.

- Heat indices at or above 105 degrees will be possible this
afternoon. A heat advisory is in effect across south central Kansas
to account for this.

- Additional storm chances continue throughout the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Any lingering showers should move out of the area before sunrise
with decreasing cloudiness this morning from west to east. Mostly
clear skies are then expected this afternoon. Winds will start out
from a southerly direction this morning, shifting to the northwest
as a weak cold front moves through the area. This will be short
lived as winds shift to the east to northeast this evening into the
overnight hours.

Another disturbance will move through the area this afternoon into
tonight.  Storms are expected to form across northeast Colorado this
afternoon and move into northern portions of the CWA this evening.
The atmosphere will once again be unstable this afternoon into the
evening, which could cause a few of the storms to become severe
across the northern half of the forecast area. The main concern with
these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. Storms are then
expected to weaken overnight as they continue to trek southeast.  A
few lingering thunderstorms may be possible as we head into sunrise
Saturday but should move out of the area by late morning. Not every
location will receive precipitation with this disturbance like we
saw Thursday night but expect at least an increase in cloudiness
overnight. The remainder of Saturday looks dry with decreasing
cloudiness.

As for temperatures through Saturday, highs today look to reach into
the upper 90s with lower 100s across south central Kansas. Surface
dewpoints in the mid 60s will allow the apparent temperature to
approach and possibly exceed 105 degrees across south central Kansas
this afternoon. A heat advisory is in effect for our southeastern
counties to account for this. Lows tonight will dip into the upper
60s with low 70s across south central Kansas. A decrease in
temperatures are expected Saturday with highs only ranging from the
mid 80s to low 90s.

The remainder of the forecast period appears to continue the MCS
abundant pattern with some signal every night. However, not every
place will receive precipitation as these disturbances pass through
the area. Highs will only reach into the 80s Sunday with upper 90s
to low 100s returning Monday and Tuesday. We then decrease into the
80s to 90s as we head into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 517 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail with a few high clouds. Winds will
start out from the southwest this morning, shifting to the
northwest this afternoon behind a weak cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ066-080-081-088>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42