-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
252
FXUS63 KDDC 230541
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A hot stretch from Sunday through Tuesday.

- Some small chances of storms Tuesday night and a brief cool
  down mid week.

- Hot weather returning towards the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

19Z surface observations and upper air analysis shows a large
595 dm high centered over the southeast CONUS with the winds in
the central plains out of the west to southwest. These winds are
bringing in a stream of upper level Pacific moisture and clouds.
At the surface a slow moving cold front is moving through
southwest Kansas which has reduced the winds speeds a bit and we
should see more northwest winds for the rest of the afternoon.

For tonight as the cold front approaches the Kansas-Oklahoma
border outside of an isolated storm breaking the cap along the
front we should be mainly dry. 12Z CAM model updates have shown
the activity should it develop to be mainly along and south of a
Coldwater-Med Lodge line. With a surface high moving into
eastern Nebraska we should see winds stay light and variable
through the overnight and gradually turning southeast by
sunrise.

As the surface high moves towards the KC metro on Sunday we
should see the return of SE winds and rising dewpoints. We will
also see the 594 dm high build in the desert southwest and a 700
mb shortwave ejecting into both the Texas-Oklahoma panhandle
and northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas. This lift could lead to
some isolated storms mainly near Elkhart but with the warm mid
levels in north central Kansas we should stay dry with the
northern wave. With 850 mb temps in the 25-29 (C) range and
decent sunshine combined with HREF probabilities of 70-100% of
>95 degrees we should see highs in the mid to upper 90s.

Monday and Tuesday will be headlined with the heat. We will be
close to heat advisory criteria in south central Kansas on
Monday with NBM output of 104 HI at Med Lodge but Tuesday will
have much higher confidence of HI criteria as 105-108 values
will be quite common in the Red Hills through south central and
central Kansas. A large 595 dm high in the southwest will
continue to keep ample warm air in the 850 mb levels in western
Kansas (25-30 C). And while long range ensembles don`t have
probabilities at the height of the heating of the day...the 1pm
and 7pm probabilities at 30-50% of greater than 100 degrees on
Monday and Tuesday also add to the higher probability of an
advisory.

Tuesday night the CSU-MLP does have a 5-15% risk of severe
weather for day 4 in central Kansas and this will largely have
to do with a weak cold front and shortwave that could lead to
some convection mainly east of highway 183. After the brief cool
down with highs in the 90s on Wednesday and Thursday we should
see the return of 100 degree heat by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Aviation weather will be tranquil this TAF period as
climatological summer conditions will prevail with winds out of
the south/southeast through this period. Flight category is
forecast to remain VFR through the period at all terminals given
the established warm air mass in place. Late in the
afternoon/early evening, widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms in vicinity of the Colorado line are expected to
develop, however weak winds in the upper levels of the
atmosphere will most likely prevent an eastward progression of
any convection, so no thunderstorms are in any of the terminals
for this synoptic TAF period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Umscheid