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223
FXUS62 KGSP 230726
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
326 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hot temperatures will linger through next week, with humidity
increasing east of the mountains starting Wednesday. A cold
front will track across the area overnight tonight into daybreak
Monday bringing a weak line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
to the area. Drier conditions return the rest of the day Monday,
lingering into the first half of Wednesday. Another cold front
will push across the area Wednesday night into Thursday, potentially
bringing better shower and thunderstorm chances to the area mid
to late week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM: Upper anticyclone now centered over Texas, and upper
low off the Carolina/Georgia coast. Between these features we are
currently in a relatively neutral pattern without much forcing,
but also with less suppression. Low-level flow is solidly out of
the SW. Some degree of low-level convergence persists across our
area between the maritime airmass and the dry air associated with
the anticyclone. A few patches of clouds persist as a result but
otherwise skies are clear. The convergence seems to be the cause
for spotty QPF response early this morning, although vertical
profiles appear unsupportive and cloud cover transient, so we
retain a dry fcst thru midday. Low levels remain fairly mixed,
and with light wind continuing radiation fog/stratus is not much
of a concern despite moist sfc conditions, the exception being
the SW NC mountain valleys as usual.

The anticyclone will continue to retrograde slowly today, and a
shortwave crossing the Great Lakes eventually will promote height
falls across the Eastern Seaboard. This mainly occurs in the
late afternoon and evening, a little late to coincide with peak
heating. Lapse rates are good in the low levels and modest above
about 600 mb, but model progs still depict a warm layer around
there, and neutral to downward vertical motion above that layer,
much like they did yesterday. CAM response is also similarly paltry
like it was the past couple of days, when we had little to no deep
convection. PoPs this aftn and early evening have been limited
to a low slight-chance mainly in the NC Foothills and Piedmont. A
few runs depict this activity continuing to propagate after 00z, by
which time height falls may work their magic, and PoPs thus continue
and in some cases increase then. The trough also will bring a weak
cold front across the Appalachians overnight, which will bring the
best overall chance of the period for the NC mountains and GA/SC
Piedmont, but still no better than scattered coverage.

Temps today should be still warmer than Saturday`s, ending up
in the mid 90s in the I-85 corridor and with a few spots in the
Lakelands in the upper 90s. Deep mixing is expected to once again
bring dewpoints down into the upper 60s and keep heat index below
advisory criteria this afternoon.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Key Messages:

1) Humidity has Trended Down Monday into Tuesday

2) Mostly Dry Conditions are now Expected Monday into Tuesday

As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...The last few forecast cycles it was
looking like most areas along the I-77 corridor and in the Upper
Savannah River Valley would flirt with Heat Advisory criteria,
especially on Monday afternoon, but that is no longer the case.
Guidance has just started depicting much lower dew points (and thus
lower humidity) filtering into the region behind a departing cold
front to kick-off the workweek. While there`s still the potential
for portions of northeast Georgia and the far western SC Upstate to
still see heat indices climb into the lower 100s Monday afternoon,
it`s looking less likely that these areas will flirt with Heat
Advisory Criteria (which starts at a heat index of 105 degrees).
Heat indices on Tuesday are expected to be lower than Monday`s,
generally remaining below 100 degrees. All things considered, this
is a good trend to have. The downside to this drier airmass is that
precipitation chances have lowered quite significantly. Mostly dry
conditions are now expected on Monday thanks to guidance showing a
much faster FROPA (front should be south of the area by daybreak
Monday). However, a few isolated showers, or perhaps even a
thunderstorm, may be able to eke out behind the front on Monday but
there`s low confidence on this due to the dry air behind the front.
Dry high pressure will filter into the region throughout Monday,
lingering through Tuesday night leading to dry weather across the
board. High temperatures are still expected to climb into the lower
to mid 90s each afternoon east of the mountains, remaining around 5-
8 degrees above climo. Lows each night should end up around 2-5
degrees above climo.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Key Messages:

1) Humidity Increases East of the Mountains Starting Wednesday and
May Linger through the Remainder of the Long Term

2) Another Cold Front Tracks Across the Area Overnight Wednesday
into Thursday, Potentially Bringing Better Coverage of Showers and
Thunderstorms

3) Shower and Thunderstorm Chances May Linger through Rest of the
Long Term but Confidence is Low

As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...A cold front will track out of the Midwest
throughout Wednesday before tracking across the western Carolinas
overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Dry conditions are expected to
continue through at least the first half of Wednesday before shower
and thunderstorm chances return the second half of Wednesday ahead
of the main FROPA. Capped PoPs chance (below 50%) area-wide
Wednesday into Thursday as global models are still not in agreement
regarding the coverage or timing of convection. Humidity will
increase on Wednesday ahead of the front, allowing heat indices to
climb into the upper 90s and lower 100s east of the mountains. The I-
77 corridor and the Upper Savannah River Valley should see the
highest heat indices on Wednesday, with a isolated areas potentially
flirting with Heat Advisory Criteria (which starts at a heat index of
105 degrees). However, most locations should remain below Heat
Advisory Criteria on Wednesday. Temps on Wednesday should climb into
the mid 90s east of the mountains and the lower 90s in the mountain
valleys. This should lead to Highs around 8-10 degrees above climo
Wednesday afternoon. However, highs could end up a few degrees lower
depending on the timing of convection Wednesday afternoon. Lows
Wednesday night will end up around 6-9 degrees above climo thanks to
increasing cloud cover and convective chances. Highs on Thursday
should end up a few degrees cooler, but are still expected to reach
into the lower to mid 90s east of the mountains. Humidity looks to
linger on Thursday (for now) despite the FROPA. Thus, heat indices
may once again climb into the upper 90s/lower 100s across portions
of the I-77 corridor and the Upper Savannah River Valley. Lows
Thursday night should remain around 6-9 degrees above climo.

The cold front will stall along the Carolina Coast Friday into
Saturday while a sfc high tracks north of the Carolinas. Global
guidance continues to show some lingering convection Friday into
Saturday so went with low-end chance PoPs (35% or less) area-wide
the second half of the long term. Highs should rebound into the
lower to mid 90s east of the mountains both days, remaining around 5-
7 degrees above climo. Humidity may linger heading into the weekend
as well, so heat indices may climb back into the upper 90s/lower
100s each afternoon, mainly across portions of the I-77 corridor and
the Upper Savannah River Valley. Lows each night should remain
around 6-9 degrees above climo.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR expected thru the period aside from
the possibility of MVFR level stratus developing near daybreak
at KCLT on moist southerly flow, or from very brief MVFR cigs
from diurnal cu at their onset in the late morning, before they
mix up to VFR level. Retained TEMPO for KCLT to this effect. A
light S`ly breeze will continue thru daybreak, veering to SW
late morning and picking up slightly this aftn. Some instability
will develop again today with profiles similar in nature to the
previous two days; again forcing will be very weak and profiles
dry aloft, so expect no better than very isolated coverage of SHRA
this aftn. Trough exiting the Midwest however could realize some
elevated instability this evening, so SHRA or a stray TSRA becomes
more likely then primarily near the NC sites. That said, chance is
too low to mention. Associated front should promote drying early
Monday, with light winds continuing, making radiation fog/stratus
unlikely, although KAVL could see low clouds develop via upslope
lift after 06z.

Outlook: Drying trend now expected to continue Mon-Tue with little
to no diurnal convection. Summertime humidity return Wed-Thu with
SHRA/TSRA chances also returning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Wimberley