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030
FXUS64 KHGX 201955
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Conditions remain on track, so little changes have been made to the
forecast. Ridging aloft and at the surface continue to control the
weather pattern across the region, resulting in hot and humid
conditions. Low-level moisture continues to surge inland, that
combined with some sfc convergence is resulting to isolated showers
over the coastal waters and along the Matagorda Island. These
showers should gradually taper off by sunset. Expect another mild
and muggy night with patchy fog, dense at times, developing through
early morning.

Similar weather conditions to today can be expected for Saturday as
high pressure remains over us. Highs will climb into the low to mid
90s with overnight lows mainly in the upper 70s.

JM
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The Autumnal Equinox occurs at 7:44am CDT on Sunday morning,
which means that we`ll have finally reached Astronomical Fall and
the temperatures will respond in kind...right?...RIGHT?! If only
things worked that way...we`ll still be dealing with the effects
of second summer as high temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s
into midweek. As we head towards midweek, the ridge aloft gets
nudged eastward by an approaching upper level trough with an
embedded cutoff low. The exact path and timing of this upper level
low remains uncertain, but there is generally consensus on
eastward movement through the Central Plains towards or after
midweek. As it slides past the Rockies, it`ll generate surface low
pressure in the Southern Plains through lee cyclogenesis. This
surface low will have a surface cold front associated with it that
is currently expected to push through Southeast Texas in the
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. This`ll be a fairly weak front, but
should be enough to usher in some drier air.

Until then though, plenty of low-level moisture remains in place for
the daily chances of afternoon showers/storms along the seabreeze to
continue. While there is general consensus in a downward trend in
temperatures towards the end of the long term period, it does come
with quite a bit of uncertainty. We`re looking at about a 6-8F
difference between the upper and lower quartiles of the NBM ensemble
distribution, which means there are some members that don`t bring
the cold front through. It`ll definitely be worth it to monitor
forecast trends for signs pointing clearly one way or the other.
We`re slightly hopeful that we can bring an end to second summer
within the first week of Astronomical Fall! *fingers and toes
crossed*

Batiste
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Benign aviation conditions as high pressure remains in control.
FEW to SCT mid clouds and light SSE winds will prevail this
afternoon and evening. Another window of MVFR to IFR conditions
due to low ceilings or fog will be possible late tonight into
early Saturday morning. However, impacts and/or coverage do not
look as aggressive as previous mornings. Having said that, have
visibility only dropping between 4SM to 6SM. Will continue to
monitor trends and adjust accordingly. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through most of the period.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will
persist into early next week. After midweek, winds and seas are
expected to gradually climb towards caution flag territory. Daily
chances for showers and storms will continue throughout the
forecast period with chances increasing after the weekend.

Batiste
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&&

.TROPICAL...
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Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor the
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico as an area
of low pressure could develop by the early to middle part of next
week. Gradual development of this system is possible and could
result in the development of a tropical depression by late next
week as it moves slowly northward or northwestward into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC currently has a 50% (medium)
probability of formation over the next 7 days. This system has not
yet developed, so it is still far too early to determine it`s
track, intensity, or any specific impacts from it. Don`t put too
much stock into any single deterministic model runs. Please
continue to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the NHC
at www.hurricanes.gov.

Batiste
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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College Station (CLL)  74  95  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  94  75  93 /   0  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  80  88  80  87 /   0   0  10  10
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&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Batiste