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059
FXUS66 KLOX 010452
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
952 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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30/951 PM.

Onshore flow will keep night through morning low clouds and fog
in the forecast across the coast and some valleys. Sunny skies
will prevail away from the coast with low clouds struggling to
clear from the beaches each afternoon. Daytime temperatures will
remain near to slightly below normal through the period.
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&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...
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30/839 PM.

***UPDATE***

Temperatures varied dramatically between the coasts and the
interior, due to a solid blanket of marine layer clouds that
persisted through the day along the Central Coast. Clouds were
more sparse for Ventura and LA Counties, where highs reached the
mid 60s to low 70s, in contrast with the cooler 50s for the
Central Coast. As the low approaches through Wednesday expecting
more marine layer clouds that extend further into the valleys and linger
longer each day. The current forecast generally looks on track,
but may need to increase onshore winds over interior San Luis
Obispo County and the Antelope Valley for Tuesday afternoon.

***From Previous Discussion***

A quiet weather pattern is expected this week across southwest
California with temperatures near to slightly below normal. A weak
upper low currently over the Bay Area will slowly drift south
Tuesday and Wednesday. This will bring about a slow rise in the
marine layer depth and bring a few degrees of cooling to the
coastal valleys and eventually bring some low clouds there as
well, possibly as early as Tuesday morning. Otherwise, a lot more
of the same weather this week with clouds clearing to the coast
each afternoon. Moderate to strong onshore flow will maintain the
usual gusty winds into the Antelope Valley each afternoon but
mostly below advisory levels.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...30/1055 AM.

Really just more of the same Friday through the weekend with
temperatures very similar day to day and low clouds pushing in to
some of the valleys each morning.

Ensemble based long range forecasts do show a substantial shift
in the weather towards the middle of next week (July 8th or 9th).
A very warm upper high is forecast to develop and trigger the
first heatwave of the summer. The mdls have also been consistently
hinting at the first monsoonal moisture push of the season as
well which would bring the threat of afternoon convection to the
area if it develops. Please stay tuned as we monitor this
developing situation over the upcoming days.
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&&

.AVIATION...01/0144Z.

At 0014Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2100 feet with a temperature of 26 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs with evening gusty SW winds at
airfields: KPRB, KWJF and KPMD.

Moderate confidence in remaining airfields. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight cat minimums by 1.
There is a 20% chc of IFR-LIFR conds at KVNY 11Z-16Z Tue.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chc of Bkn004
conds overnight. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30-40% chance
of VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
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30/947 PM.

Conditions will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels through Wednesday night, except for a high-to-likely
(40-60 percent) chance of SCA level northwest winds from near
Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Local SCA level wind gusts may also develop each
afternoon and evening inside the southern California bight.

From Wednesday night through the upcoming holiday weekend,
northwest winds will increase, especially from southwest through
northwest of the Channel Islands and along the Central Coast.
There is a high to likely (50-70 percent) chance of SCA conditions
between Thursday night and Sunday. There is a low (10-20 percent)
chance of GALES on Thursday afternoon and evening beyond 10 NM
offshore of Central Coast and south to San Nicolas Island. Inside
the southern California, there is an elevated chance of SCA level
winds during the afternoon and evening through the Santa Barbara
Channel, near Point Dume, and into the San Pedro Channel.

A shallow marine layer depth in place will continue to create
patchy dense fog that will affect the coastal waters, especially
north of Point Conception through Tuesday morning.
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&&

.BEACHES...
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30/935 PM.

A southerly swell with marginally high height and longer period
could produce strong rip currents between Thursday and through the
upcoming holiday weekend. There is a moderate chance that a beach
hazards statement may be issued to highlight elevated surf
conditions and strong rip current activity in the surf zone. If
planning on heading to the beach over the holiday weekend, please
check with a lifeguard before entering the water. Always swim
near an occupied lifeguard tower.
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&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
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&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/MW
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...Hall
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox