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079
FXUS64 KLZK 180525
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Light to moderate rain continues over primarily the eastern
reaches of the CWA with scattered convection starting to become a
little more widespread elsewhere.

Area is currently between upper level ridging sitting over the SE
CONUS and upper troughing moving into the Pacific NW. Mid level vort
max riding along the western periphery of the SE ridge helping to
generate some of heavier precipitation over the east with this
feature continuing to move off tho the N/NE this evening.

Precipitation in general is expected to decrease early this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Precipitation coverage will be
spotty in nature with amounts generally light except in and near the
stronger convection.

Moisture will continue to feed into the region with diurnally driven
convection expected once again Tuesday afternoon. Aforementioned
upper ridge will begin to retrograde on Wednesday with convection
much more suppressed as the ridge returns.

Much like the past few days, highs are expected to be in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. Humidity will make heat index values feel slightly
higher. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday

H500 ridging to the east of the area will build west toward the
Southern Plains. This will provide a period of above normal
temperatures and no rain to the state. Td values don`t look too out
of hand, limiting overall heat index values through Saturday.

Toward the weekend, a strong storm system will track from the
central Plains to the upper Midwest. The system will try to drag a
cold front toward Arkansas, but the front will have difficulty
penetrating through the ridge. Even so, moisture will increase a bit
ahead of the front, and this may result in isolated afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms next weekend. Heat index values may approach
or exceed 105 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Scattered shower continue across portions of southeastern Arkansas
as of the midnight hour. These showers will likely diminish
through the overnight hours with most terminals across the south
and central Arkansas returning to VFR/MVFR conditions. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will remain out of the south
through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Batesville AR     86  70  87  70 /  20   0  10   0
Camden AR         86  70  88  71 /  20   0  10   0
Harrison AR       86  67  84  68 /  20   0  10   0
Hot Springs AR    87  70  87  71 /  20   0  10   0
Little Rock   AR  87  73  90  73 /  20   0  10   0
Monticello AR     87  72  90  72 /  20   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      87  68  85  70 /  30   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  86  69  85  69 /  30   0  10   0
Newport AR        87  72  88  71 /  20   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     87  71  89  72 /  20   0   0   0
Russellville AR   88  71  87  72 /  30   0  10   0
Searcy AR         87  71  90  71 /  20   0  10   0
Stuttgart AR      86  73  88  73 /  20   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...73