-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
632
FXUS64 KMEG 251726
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Dangerously hot conditions are developing across the Mid-South
this morning. Heat index values have already topped 100 degrees in
many areas this morning. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect
through 8 pm across most of the Delta Region where heat index
values are expected to reach or exceed 110 degrees. A Heat
Advisory is in effect elsewhere. Latest CAMs do show some isolated
showers and thunderstorms during peak heating into the early
evening so added a small pop across much of the area.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Extreme heat will continue today with portions of the Delta likely
reaching heat index values above 110. Slight cool off into
tomorrow, with widespread showers and thunderstorms by the
afternoon / evening. Another dry spell Thursday through at least
the first half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Biggest forecast note for today will be the continued heat across
the region. Much of the area is expected to reach Heat Index
values of at least 105, with many across the Delta seeing values
at or above 110. Be sure to take proper precautions through the
afternoon, remain hydrated and take frequent breaks.

Weak boundary will drift through the area overnight, allowing some
additional moisture to funnel back in. While a rogue thunderstorm
or two could occur overnight into tomorrow morning, more
widespread showers and thunderstorms are not expected until the
afternoon to evening. Similar to this past weekend, model
soundings do show a ripe environment for a few strong storms,
however, mid-level lapse rates are less than ideal. As such,
storms may build quickly and have a few strong winds and small
hail, but likely won`t last very long as they traverse the area.
One thing I will note looking at soundings are the PWAT values.
Forecast values look to be around the 90th percentile for the time
of year (~2in), which is certainly something to keep an eye on.
Luckily thunderstorms should be moving quickly, but if any storms
begin to linger or train flooding in flood-prone areas could
become an issue.

By Thursday, a building upper-level ridge will aid in drying out
the area and likely keep any meaningful rainfall out of the area
through at least the first half of the weekend. Unfortunately
while Thursday will be "cooler" than we have seen lately, hot and
humid conditions will return Friday and continue into at least the
first half of next week. Have opted to leave chance PoPs in for
Sunday as a decaying boundary will be moving towards our area, but
there remains a lot of uncertainty to if it will actually be able
to move through with the strengthening high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Latest CAM guidance shows the potential for isolated SHRA/TSRA
development across the airspace later today/overnight(JBR), but
confidence is not high enough to include in TAF at this time.
Otherwise, SHRA/TSRA also looks possible early tomorrow morning,
with greater confidence in a line of SHRA/TSRA moving through the
Mid-South in the late morning to afternoon time frame.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-
     018-026-027-035-036-048-049-058.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ028.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-
     007-008-010>012-020-021.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ002>006-009-
     013>017-022>024.

TN...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ088.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JPR