-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
652
FXUS62 KMHX 030513
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
113 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains off the coast through midweek. A backdoor
front will move into the area on Tuesday and stall through
Wednesday morning. High pressure then rebuilds offshore later
Wednesday with moist southerly flow strengthening through late
week ahead of a potent frontal system, which will result in
generally unsettled conditions Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 110 AM Mon... No significant changes to the forecast for
the rest of tonight as widespread cloudcover remains over ENC
with temps generally in the upper 60s to low 70s across the
region.

Prev Disc...High pressure offshore will continue to
extend west into eastern NC tonight and Mon resulting mostly dry
and benign conditions tonight. Slow moistening of the atms has
commenced with broad swrly flow inc TD`s into the 50s to low 60s
acrs the FA. Sct strato cu will cont through the night, with
sct/bkn mid and high clouds advecting in from the west. Weak
wave will bring some iso showers or sprinkles late tonight and
esp towards daybreak for wrn zones mainly west of Highway 17,
though forcing is quite weak and pops no higher than 20-30%
late. Isolated showers forming over the gulfstream after
midnight could move into coastal areas between Cape Lookout and
Cape Hatteras but the bulk of this activity should remain
offshore. Much warmer tonight with lows in the 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Aforementioned mid level wave and srly flow
will bring small shower chances to the area, though 02/12Z cams
have backed off on coverage of showers, and the latest HREF has
reflected this. Have no higher than 30% advertised for pops,
with the potential for some iso thunder with some weak
instability (CAPE around 1k J/KG) by afternoon. Temps will be
warm and humid, with many areas in the interior reaching the mid
80s, and dewpoints higher than compared to today, with readings
in the 60s most areas, even inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Conditions become more unsettled Monday
as a weak impulse moves overhead. A backdoor cold front moves
into Eastern NC Tuesday morning and stalls through Wednesday
morning, and provides a focus for scattered shower and
thunderstorm development. High pressure rebuilds offshore later
Wednesday, and increasing southerly flow will bring a surge of
moisture into the area through late week with more unsettled
conditions likely. A strong cold front looks to move through the
area sometime next weekend.

Tuesday...A backdoor cold front will move into the area
Tuesday morning, but now looks to be weaker, and is expected to
stall somewhere across Eastern NC. This development brings the
potential for the front to focus afternoon shower and
thunderstorm development, and have the highest chances for
precip (35-45%) inland Tuesday afternoon.

Highs Tuesday will be warmer than recent days but still
slightly below normal and in the low to mid 80s.
Thurs
Wednesday through Saturday...The stalled frontal boundary will
break down early Wednesday as high pressure rebuilds off the SE
coast, and this will allow rich moisture (PWATs 1.75-2") to
advect in from the west Wednesday through Friday ahead of a
potent upper level trough and strong cold front.

Increasingly unsettled conditions (40-55% +) are likely with a
diurnal max in coverage each afternoon. An increase in heat and
humidity is also likely as highs climb into the upper 80s to low
90s each afternoon, and it will feel like 95-100 degrees out
when factoring the humidity.

Stark timing differences with the front among model guidance,
as well as differences with the eventual evolution of the upper
level trough casts some doubt on rain chances Friday, but most
guidance has drier conditions moving in for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Mon/...
As of 110 AM Mon... Expecting primarily VFR conditions and
south to southwesterly winds through the TAF period across ENC
as high pressure remains just offshore today. Sct strato cu
around 4-5 kft will prevail, with sct/bkn mid and high clouds
persisting. Could see an iso shower esp for wrn taf sites
towards morning with a slightly better chance Mon afternoon. Did
add in some vicinity showers to PGV/ISO where shower coverage
has the highest chance to occur, though current precip forecast
remains low confidence. Will likely leave any precip mention out
this afternoon once again given even lower confidence in which
TAF sites see precip later today though showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible after about 1-2PM especially
across the western TAF sites. Precip chances then quickly
decrease after sunset from west to east.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Unsettled conditions will be the theme this
week, with best chances for rain and thunderstorms coming
Wednesday and Thursday. This could bring some periods of sub-
VFR conditions to the terminals at times.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Mon/...
As of 910 PM Sun...No changes to previous thinking. Benign
boating conditions persist through the period as high pressure
becomes centered off the Southeast Coast. Winds generally 10-15
kt with ocnl g 20 kt through the period, with the strongest
winds during the late afternoon/early evening differential
heating max. Seas generally 1-2 ft through the period with a
primary periodicity of around 5 seconds.

LONG TERM /Mon night through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Good boating conditions expected through
Wednesday with light winds but some unsettled conditions
possible. Then the pressure gradient will tighten Thursday with
low end Small Craft conditions possible.

Winds will be SSW at 10-15 kts Monday, becoming weaker overnight
into Tuesday morning. A backdoor front will move through a
portion of the waters from the north Tuesday morning before
stalling, with flow out of the NE at 5-10 kts to its north and
SW winds at 5-10 kts to its south. This front will continue to
bifurcate the coastal waters through Wednesday morning until
high pressure rebuilds offshore and winds become SSW at 10-15
kts Wednesday afternoon. Winds then continue to strengthen
Wednesday night, and then climb to SW 20-25 kts Thursday.

Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through Wednesday, and then increase
to 4-6 ft Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SGK/MS
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...JME/TL/SGK