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108
FXUS64 KMOB 071123
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
623 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A southerly flow pattern aloft continues through Tuesday as an
upper-level low continues to slowly retrograde westward across the
northern Gulf. This will allow for deep moisture to slowly advect
back into the local region. By the middle to latter part of the
week, upper ridging will attempt to build in across the southeast
US. It may, however, have some trouble establishing itself across
our local region as several shortwave impulses are expected to
move around/within the ridge, keeping our area underneath a
weakness within the ridge. Therefore, am anticipating rain chances
to gradually increase throughout the week, with scattered showers
and storms expected for today and tomorrow, becoming more
numerous by the middle to latter part of the week and into the
weekend. Activity is expected to follow a typical diurnal
summertime pattern, with showers and storms developing during the
morning over our marine zones and along the coast, pulse-type
storms developing during the afternoon hours along the sea breeze
which spread inland via outflow boundary collisions, and activity
eventually dissipating during the evening due to the loss of
daytime heating. As we typically see with this type of pattern,
cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty
downburst winds and small hail, as well as very heavy rainfall.
Highs each day will generally top out in the low to mid 90s. At
this point, it still looks like we should stay just below Heat
Advisory criteria, although heat indices could potentially rise to
as high as 102-107 degrees. Lows will range from the low 70s
inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast. The rip current
risk remains low through much of the period, however, there is an
indication that strengthening onshore flow may help to increase
the rip current risk to a moderate risk for our Florida beaches
during the Wednesday night through Thursday night timeframe. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

General VFR conditions with light northwesterly winds were noted
across the forecast area at 11z. Am expecting showers and
thunderstorms to develop today, with greatest coverage in the
afternoon as an inland moving seabreeze brings southerly winds
around 10 knots. The convection is expected to decrease this
evening as sunset approaches and the day`s heating is lost.
/16
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow
prevails through the week. No impacts are expected other than
locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /96

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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