-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
165
FXUS66 KMTR 190634
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1134 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Upper level trough will dig over California through midweek, with
breezy onshore winds continuing and temperatures near seasonal
averages prevailing through Thursday. The trough will remain in
place, but weaken for Friday and the weekend, with warmer
conditions developing once again across the inland areas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Near term weather concerns continue to be fire weather focused.
Fortunately, the two more notable fires in the CWA, the Point and
Coast Fires, are showing signs of much less fire activity than 24
hour. For the record, neither fire is contained and are still be
attended to by fire personnel. The one notable fire, which is not
in the CWA, is still impacting the region. That fire is the Sites
Fire and is NE of the Bay Area. It is impacting the Bay Area with
haze and smoke. Northerly transport flow ushered in smoke from
the north leading to haze and reports of smoke across the North
and East Bay. Any clearing of said smoke/haze has been slow going.
Latest forecast guidance continues to advertise a shift to more
westerly transport flow, which should help push some of the
smoke/haze eastward. The latest satellite imagery does show some
eastward movement of the smoke/haze. That being said, did update
the forecast to include more haze across the N and E Bay this
evening. While fire activity is less this evening, elevated fire
weather conditions still prevail. A quick sampling of
observations in the Bay Are and Central Coast still show very low
humidity with readings in the upper single digits to teens. There
are also some breezy conditions with gusts of 20-30 mph. Fire
weather concerns will ultimately diminish gradually tonight as
onshore flow increases with better humidity recovery expected.
While current satellite shows no marine layer at the moment a
shallow marine layer is forecast to develop along the coast and
move locally inland.

No other updates needed this evening.

MM

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Water vapor imagery continues to show the next disturbance
digging south along the Central Coast this afternoon, with high
clouds spreading across the region at this time. That said, the
cloud cover has done little to suppress temperatures today as
temperatures are currently running upwards of 8 degrees warmer
than this time yesterday. Onshore gradients are starting to
increase once again as well. However, not quite as strong as this
time yesterday. Meanwhile, the Fort Ord Profiler is the showing an
extremely compressed marine layer, about 200 feet currently. The
marine layer will slowly increase this evening and tonight, with
some patchy fog returning to the coastal areas during the late
night and early morning hours.

The upper level trough will remain over the West Coast on
Wednesday, with onshore flow prevailing. Temperatures will likely
cool a few degrees along the coast with the return the marine
layer, while inland areas will remain seasonal. Palmer

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The upper level trough will remain over the West, but gradually
start to fill Thursday through Saturday. As a result, a warming
trend will develop, especially for the inland areas. At this point
in time, the ensembles are hinting that Saturday will be the
warmest day, with the favored hot spots reaching into the triple
digits. However, there are some of the ensemble members
suggesting that the subtropical ridge could finally expand into
the region from the Desert Southwest, with warming conditions
persisting through the first part of the work week, especially
for the inland areas. Palmer

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

MVFR/IFR CIGS are forming around the Monterey Bay and will move
inland further into the night. MVFR CIGs filter into the SF Bay
early Wednesday morning, filling over OAK at times. Expect winds to
be light to moderate through the late morning before breezy winds
arrive into the afternoon as widespread VFR returns. Winds reduce
into Wednesday evening as MVFR and IFR CIGs begin to affect the
Monterey Bay and SF Bay terminals.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts through Wednesday evening. Winds Stay
moderate  through the morning with another round of breezy winds
start in the afternoon with peak gusts around 26 kts. These winds
reduce into the evening as MVFR CIGs fill over the terminal

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR CIGs fill over the terminals into
the late night with light to moderate winds. CIGS erode into the mid
to late morning as  moderate to breezy winds arrive. Winds at the
terminals reduce into the evening as IFR CIGs move inland.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1134 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Gusty northwest winds will ease somewhat overnight but remain
breezy through late Wednesday morning, and persist through
Thursday morning. Northwest winds increase again late Thursday
evening across northern waters, remaining gusty through the
weekend. Significant wave heights have returned to around 6-8
feet, but will build back up to 10-12 feet towards the end of the
the  weekend as larger northwesterly swell returns.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM....Palmer
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...JM

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