-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
367
FXUS66 KMTR 161152
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
452 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Dry and windy with elevated fire concerns into early next week.
Seasonal temps and quiet weather midweek. Potential warming trend
for late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024
(Today and tonight)

Satellite fog product shows clear skies over much of California.
It`s June, where is the coastal stratus? For a few days now, we`ve
been talking about pressure gradients leading to stronger winds
and drier air. That continues to be the case again tonight into
Sunday. No major change to the overall synoptic pattern - an upper
low remains near the PacNW and broad upper level ridging remains
over Baja/E Central Pacific. The Bay Area and Central Coast remain
sandwiched in the middle. Speaking of gradients, the N-S
gradients was over -8mb earlier tonight. Anything greater
than -7mb is usually a good stratus eraser. The stronger
northerly flow happens to be ushering in drier air as well, which
is also contributing to less clouds. Latest 24 hr trends continue
to indicated RH values in some area 5 to 40 percent drier than
last night.

Not expecting much of a change in the overall sensible weather
over the next 24 hours. Max temps today will be in the uppers to
lower 70s for the coast/bays and upper 60s to near 90 across the
interior. Winds will be breezy through the afternoon, especially
along the coast and any inland gap/pass. Do expect another burst
of stronger winds later this evening and overnight as the upper
low tightens and moves SE toward the Great Basin. Still not
strong enough/widespread for a Wind Advisory, but the marine
environment will remain hazardous with very pronounced coastal
jets.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 240 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Monday through Saturday)

To begin the work week temperatures hold steady or cool a few
degrees in response to a passing upper level trough. Either way,
still seasonably cool for mid-June. One final day of breezy
northerly flow as well, before winds finally ease Monday night
into Tuesday with weakening pressure gradients.

A subtle warming trend begins midweek before a more notable warm
up impacts California in the extended. Confidence continues to
increase as longer range probabilistic tools and ensemble
guidance show ridging with interior heat. Still several days out,
but impactful heat will return to the interior by next Friday and
linger through the weekend. HeatRisk guidance continues to trend
upward with more interior portions reaching the Moderate
category. Will need to keep an eye on this as the forecast becomes
more clear.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 438 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Moments of MVFR/IFR CIGS affect the Monterey Bay terminals into
the mid morning, otherwise VFR through the TAF period. Light to
moderate winds last into the late morning and early afternoon but
increase through the afternoon, with particularly strong winds
over the ocean and at SFO. Elevated winds last into the late night
before reducing. Winds aloft stay strong further into the late
night, particularly over the North Bay causing concerns for LLWS
at STS.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay moderate
through the rest of the morning . Another rough of gusty west
winds starts building into the afternoon with peak gusts expected
to be around 34 kts. These stronger gusts last into the night,
reducing to gusts of roughly 24 kts after 05z. Winds reduce
further into Monday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Moments of MVFR/IFR linger into the mid
morning, then VFR through the rest of the TAF period. Light to
moderate winds last into the afternoon before more breezy westerly
winds arrive. Expect stronger and gustier winds over the
immediate coast and ocean compared to the terminals. Winds at the
terminals reduce into the night, but remain strong along the coast
and ocean.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 438 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Widespread gale force gusts to persist into early Monday before
reducing, but still remaining dangerous to smaller craft.
Significant wave heights will stay at 12-17 feet until Monday
before decreasing. Hazardous conditions will linger well into the
work week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2024

...Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Through The Weekend...

*Breezy to gusty northerly winds, especially higher terrain
*Lowering relative humidity values day and night

It goes without saying, but elevated fire weather conditions
remain over the district. Yesterday was a prime example of dry
northerly flow with receptive fine fuels. The Hernandez Fire
burned in San Benito county. One can still see a little be of heat
on the satellite imagery. Expect more of the same today with grass
fires being the biggest concern.

It`s Father`s Day and you may have outdoor plans - like a BBQ.
Just be mindful about any open flame and don`t be that "spark" to
start the next fire.

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-
     10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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