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436
FXUS64 KOHX 220155
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
855 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 849 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Clouds will clear out tonight and we will see quiet conditions.
Temperatures are warm currently in the 80s which is about 2-5
degrees warmer than yesterday this time. Temperatures will remain
warm tonight falling into the low to mid 70s. A little bit of
patchy fog will be possible in the normal fog areas towards
daybreak but most areas won`t see anything. Another hot one is in
store for tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 90s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Another hot and humid summer day across the midstate today with
current temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Anticipate highs to reach the upper 80s
to around 90 on the Plateau this afternoon with mid to upper 90s
elsewhere. HRRR has been consistently showing a few popup showers
or storms during the afternoon, so I added a very slight chance
pop for that potential. Tomorrow looks even hotter as the upper
ridge remains in place and 850mb temps heat up a tad, so expect
highs to be a degree or two above today`s readings. It`s possible
Nashville could squeak up to the 100 degree mark during the
afternoon, but right now I`m forecasting it to stay just below. A
few areas could also reach our Heat Advisory criteria of 105+
heat index values, but with most areas staying below that I`m not
planning on an advisory at this time. Also not anticipating any
popups tomorrow due to the strength of the upper ridge, but as
always in our summertime regime one or two could occur.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

On Sunday, a weak frontal boundary will sink down from the north,
bringing some widely scattered showers and storms by late
afternoon and especially Sunday evening/night. Models accordingly
cool down highs for Sunday, but with the late day frontal arrival
they are likely overdoing things and temps will likely be similar
to Saturday. Forecast soundings aren`t impressive with only weak
shear and CAPE for late Sunday, but a strong storm or two could
occur mainly with gusty winds.

Drier airmass moves in behind the front on Monday into Tuesday,
but 850mb temps actually warm up into the 21-24C range - so it
highs will actually go up across Middle Tennessee with a better
likelihood for a few areas to hit the 100 degree mark. Low level
moisture begins returning from the west on Tuesday so precip
chances will be on the rise Wednesday into Thursday while
temperatures decline thanks to clouds/precip. Guidance shows a
more substantial cold front moving through the region by late
week, with a return to dry conditions and at least somewhat of a
"cooldown" into the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light and variable. Patchy fog may develop over portions of the
Cumberland Plateau, which may impact KSRB and KCSV. But confidence
was not high enough to include in the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Nashville      74  99  75  98 /   0   0   0  20
Clarksville    72  96  73  94 /   0   0  10  30
Crossville     67  89  68  89 /   0  10  10  20
Columbia       72  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  20
Cookeville     69  91  70  91 /   0  10  10  20
Jamestown      68  90  70  89 /   0  10  10  30
Lawrenceburg   71  95  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   71  97  72  97 /   0   0   0  20
Waverly        72  95  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
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&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Clements