-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
556
FXUS61 KOKX 031935
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
335 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure gradually builds down from New England through
Wednesday, then moves into the Atlantic Wednesday night. A series of
frontal system then approaches from the west Thursday through next
weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure builds into the area from the north tonight. Any early
isolated showers this evening will quickly come to an end with dry
conditions overnight.  A weak SE-E flow is expected tonight. Some of
the guidance is hinting at some stratus moving into the area off the
ocean waters, mainly along the coast. Not sure how much, if any
cloud cover we see. It may be hard to get the clouds with the high
building in from the south. Looks like the better chance will be
Tuesday night. Lows tonight will range from the middle 50s to middle
60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Ridging aloft continues to shift east on Tuesday and Wednesday
with surface high pressure situated off to the north.

Tuesday will be dry with high pressure remaining off the New
England coast. An onshore flow will keep coastal locales a bit
cooler than recent days, with highs likely in the low to mid 70s
during the afternoon. Away from this influence, mainly the far
interior and areas west of the Hudson River, lower 80s is where
temperatures top out.

Conditions remain dry Tuesday night, however with the second night
of onshore flow, expect a better chance of stratus and/or fog to
develop. Lows will be in the 50s and lower 60s.

High pressure starts to shift eastward Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile, a vigorous shortwave rounding the base of a large
upper low over Central Canada will move into the Midwest. This
will bring an end to the relatively quiet pattern that has been
in place. Rain chances increase Wednesday afternoon and evening
with the approach of an associated warm front from the south and
west. While the bulk of the day appears dry, global ensembles
have trended a bit quicker with this WAA, and will need to
continue to monitor these trends. It`s just as possible however
any wet weather holds off until later Wednesday night.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be held down some by the
increasing cloud cover and persistent onshore flow, with highs
in the 70s to near 80 for most.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main points

* Heavy showers and thunderstorms looking likely for Wednesday night
  into Thursday. Possibility for mainly minor flooding. See hydro
  section for more details.

* Periodic shower activity for Friday and into upcoming weekend.
  Possible thunderstorms at times as well.

* Temperatures will not depart much from normal values this time of
  year.

Synoptic pattern shows a transition from mid level ridge to a
longwave mid level trough that eventually closes off. The mid level
cutoff low then moves towards the local region towards the end of
the week and into the upcoming weekend. The base of the trough and
its axis potentially get within the local region by Sunday
night. This analysis is from the LREF grand ensemble.

Here is how the forecast changed compared to the previous forecast:

Temperatures no significant changes. Max temperature forecast lower
80s NYC and locations N&W Thursday and Friday. Min temperatures
forecast mid 50s to around 60 for much of area Friday night and
Saturday night, lower 60s for NYC.

POPs trended up Wednesday night, overnight, now into likely NYC and
locations N&W, overnight Wed night into early Thursday AM, 6-12Z
Thursday, likely POPs all forecast region 12-18Z Thursday, just
about entire area 18Z Thursday - 00Z Friday. Otherwise no
significant changes.

Despite marginal elevated instability in the Thursday into Friday
timeframe, there is potential for some low to mid level omega to aid
in vertical lift, so that is why there are higher chances of
thunderstorms and wanted to have higher than slight chance thunder.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure along the New England coast strengthens tonight
and builds into the area by morning. The center of the high will
remain offshore on Tuesday.

Mainly a VFR forecast through Tuesday. A spotty shower is
possible this afternoon. There is some concern for shallow
low-level moisture to work in from the east overnight with the
possibility of a short period of IFR/LIFR ceilings. This would
be at the coastal terminals. However, confidence remains low and
plan to keep out of the forecast at this time.

A weak flow this afternoon will be enhanced by local seabreezes
at less than 10 kt. Elsewhere, expect a light E/SE flow to
develop if it hasn`t already. For tonight, winds will either be
light SE or light and variable, but then become easterly at 5
to 10 kt toward daybreak. Winds will veer to the ESE on Tuesday
at 7 to 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of afternoon seabreeze and wind shift to the SE may be
vary by 1-2 hours.

Low confidence of brief IFR/LIFR late tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Afternoon: VFR. Chance of IFR/LIFR in low clouds and fog
at night.

Wednesday: VFR during the day. MVFR or lower possible late day
into the night with chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the daytime hours.

Friday: Chance of MVFR with showers and possible thunderstorms.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through late week with
seas on the ocean generally 3 ft or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Wednesday.

With precipitable waters potentially approaching near 2 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday, some showers and especially any
thunderstorms could have heavy downpours. The potentially torrential
rain could cause minor flooding in low lying, urban and poor
drainage areas. With sufficient movement to showers and
thunderstorms, would think much of the flooding potential would be
minor.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Coastal flood statement in effect for South Shore Bays of
Nassau NY 4PM this afternoon to 8PM this evening. Coastal flood
statement in effect for Southern Westchester NY, Southern
Fairfield CT 8PM this evening to 12AM tonight.

Guidance all points to statement level events for the next few
evenings as tides increase astronomically. Most locations need a
1/2 to a 1 foot to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks. The
existing background anomaly looks to be sufficient enough to
get some of the more vulnerable locations across western LI
Sound and the south shore bays of LI right around these levels.
A few spots may also go 1 to 2 tenths above.

With the approach of a new moon this week, astronomical levels
will be on the rise. With winds becoming more southerly and
eventually southeasterly, this will allow for increasing surge
this week. This could lead to a bit more coverage as the week
hoes on.

There is a low rip current risk through Wednesday due to low
seas on the ocean and winds mainly 10 kt or less.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...