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126
FXUS65 KPUB 231115
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
515 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temps increasing today with pops decreasing.

- Well above normal, and potentially dangerously hot temperatures
  are expected for Monday and Tuesday.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue Monday and
  Tuesday, with an increase in coverage expected for the second
  half of the work week.

- A cool down arrives this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Currently...

Except for along the NM border, skies were clear across the region.
Water vapor sat pix imgy shows the moisture plume has shifted south
and the brunt of the moisture was now lying WSW-ENE mainly across AZ-
NM and into sw KS. Temps across the region at 2 AM were in the 70s
across most of the plains, with 60s on the Palmer and Raton Mesas.
Temps over the higher terrain were rather uniform across the valleys
and plains, with readings in the 40s and 50s.

Today...

Temps will start to get hot again, and expect max temp readings will
be well into the 90s across a good part of the plains with a 100F or
two reading along the lower Ark Rvr Valley. Over the valleys temps
will max out in th e80 to 85 Range. With the moisture plume along
the NM border, this will be where the best chance of some isold
showers will occur. Another area will be along a sfc trough which
will extend to Kim to Lamar. Over the rest of the region, showers
will be few and far between. Any convective threat to day will
mainly be gusty winds with the high based activity. Overall, heat
will be the main weather issue this afternoon.

Tonight...

Any convective activity should quickly dissipate by early evening.
Min temps will only drop into the 60s across the plains, with 60-65F
across the Divides and upper 60s over the far eastern plains,
Valleys will fall into 50s with 40s mtns. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Monday and Tuesday..

Our long term forecast will be largely dominated by the upper high
over the south-central US. We remain along it northern periphery
through most of this week, with the hottest day of the period
looking to be Tuesday. Temperatures climb well into the triple
digits for most plains locations on both Monday and Tuesday, but
Tuesday is looking particularly scorching for our plains.
Considering that this is still fairly early in the season, Heat
Advisories could be warranted for El Paso, Pueblo, and eastern
Fremont counties for Tuesday if models continue to trend towards 10
to 15 degree above normal temperature ranges. Anyone who needs to be
outside on Monday and Tuesday should take extra precautions, drink
water, and limit time in the sun if at all possible. Though cloud
cover will be scarce on the plains, high-based afternoon convection
will still be possible over the high country, especially on Monday,
as weak impulses rotate around the high. Another area that could see
a few high-based storms would be our far southeastern plains on
Monday afternoon.

Wednesday Onwards..

Slightly cooler temperatures (though not by much..) arrive on
Wednesday as the high starts to retreat south and weaken, and a weak
cold front passes through the forecast area. Another influx of
subtropical moisture also arrives by midweek as it makes its way
around the subtropical high. These cooler temperatures and increases
in moisture will bring some relief from the heat but will also
increase our thunderstorm chances across the forecast area for the
second half of our work week. Models depict a stronger cold front
arriving around the Friday timeframe, which looks to cool us down to
more normal temperatures, meaning a return to low 90s over the
weekend for a good portion of the plains. Models are also showing
some significant drying behind this front, which could mean more
isolated thunderstorm activity for the weekend as well. Though there
is a drying trend heading into this weekend, winds appear to be too
weak to warrant any fire weather mentions at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 513 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions near certain for the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light and diurnally
driven.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH