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547
FXUS61 KRLX 050711
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
311 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Cloudy with a wave of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Another wave of convection ahead of a cold front late tonight.
Cooler and drier Friday into Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 AM Wednesday...

Fairly potential active day ahead as synoptically a
semi-stationary boundary will drape across the northern tier of
the CWA while we are in the warm sector with southerly flow
pumping plenty of moisture into the area. The frontal boundary
will eventually lift north by this evening. PWATs are up near
1.5 inches, the column will be saturated in the mid to upper
levels and long skinny CAPE all tells us that heavy down pours
are possible within shower or storms which will be capable of
pumping down significant amounts of rainfall in as short period
of time. QPF is generally around an inch for today into Thursday
morning and heavy convection will likely add to those totals in
certain areas, especially west of the Ohio River.

WPC has placed us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall so an
isolated water issue is not out of the question. There will not
be too much instability (greatest instability likely along the
Ohio River and west of there) as cloud coverage will stay fairly
high today, however there will be enough to support storm
activity area-wide. Some storms could be strong to severe
across the Ohio River and west of there. SPC has place that area
under a marginal risk for severe with the main threat being
damaging wind, hail and we cannot rule out a tornado or two.

Outside the threats we are looking at a warm although guidance had
much higher temperatures than in the current forecast which was
lowered by a few degrees due to the amount of cloud coverage
and rainfall expected. Hi-res models imply there will be a wave
of convection during the afternoon and another wave ahead of the
cold front to our west late tonight. Overnight lows will be
fairly high with clouds suppressing any radiational cooling
along with fairly decent mixing at the surface through the
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Post frontal showers may linger Thursday morning, especially in the
mountains, with some additional pop-up activity possible for the
afternoon. A reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air arrives
Thursday night which may yield another round of showers along the
effective front before a modestly drier air mass settles in for
Friday and into the day Saturday. This yields mainly quiet
conditions with surface parcels struggling to warm enough to
make it through the inversion in the post frontal airmass.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Barotropic upper level low pressure anchored over the St
Lawrence yields west-northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast
area for much of the weekend. A bulk of any shortwave energy
rotating around this feature stays north of the area, except
perhaps late Saturday night into Sunday morning as a northern
stream impulse arrives to reinforce aforementioned low
pressure. Outside of this, generally diurnally enhanced pop-up
activity is expected with minimal risk of severe weather through
early next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 120 AM Wednesday...

Have HTS/PKB developing fog this morning due to recent rainfall
as well as some fog inserted to EKN TAF. Any fog lifts by 13Z.
The rest of the site will be under VFR until this afternoon
where a wave of convection will likely start up and cause some
VIS restrictions periodically. CIGs should stay relatively
elevated in height but could sneak down to high end MVFR at
times under thunderstorm or shower activity. There may be a
slight lull in the evening but then by late tonight another wave
of convection ahead of a cold front will cause more
restrictions to VIS and CIGs. Winds will stay elevated and
south-southwest for the period with gust in the teens this
afternoon and evening possible as well as with frontal passage
by Thursday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog development may spread to other TAF
sites this morning.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 06/05/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times through Thursday night.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JZ