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118
FXUS61 KRNK 040020
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
820 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast
United States through Tuesday. Daily scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue for the region through Tuesday. A cold
front approaches Wednesday bringing widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the area. The front will move across region on
Thursday. A brief break in the wet weather pattern is expected
behind the front on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 810 PM EDT Monday...

A weak boundary which had helped to sustain convection over
parts of the Piedmont has drifted out of the area for the most
part. Not much lightning with these cells but moderate to heavy
rainfall, with some rates more than 1 inch/hour. This activity
was waning fast with the loss of heating and expect any
remaining showers to fall apart shortly.

Stratus may expand from eastern VA overnight, but mainly
expecting fog and fog adjacent low level stratus with plenty of
low level moisture around- dew points over the Piedmont were
briefly in the low 70s this evening.


As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

An upper level ridge axis will stay over the area through Tuesday
morning, then drift eastward in the afternoon. With a warm and humid
airmass underneath this ridge, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible each afternoon, fading during the evening. Storms are
not expected to become severe, but may produce heavy downpours.
Areas that see rain will likely have fog developing in the morning.
Areas of dense fog will be centered around lakes and rivers. Fog
should lift by 10 AM.

Near normal temperatures expected this afternoon. Temperatures will
be 3F-5F warmer than normal on Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. High probability for showers and thunderstorms mid-week.
2. Warm and humid through Thursday.

Upper ridging over the mid-Atlantic will promote warm humid
conditions through Thursday. It will become increasingly moist
as southwest flow brings higher dewpoints into the region ahead
of a cold front...PWATs increasing to near 1.80 Wednesday. A
mid-latitude shortwave trough is expected to cross the Ohio
Valley Wednesday with buoyancy and dynamic lift leading to
numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Surface cold front is expected to trail the
mid-level trough leading to lingering showers Thursday before a
bonafide cool-down begins with the passage of the surface front
Thursday night.

Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to limit
severe convection Wednesday, but ample low-level moisture and
modest buoyancy may lead to pulse severe associated with wet
microburst environment and potential for localized heavy rain.
There is a marginal risk for rainfall exceeding flash flood
guidance Wed/Wed-night per the supportive high PWAT airmass.
Showers during this time frame should be very rain efficient.

Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal at night due
to the higher dewpoints...lows in the 60s. Daytime temperatures
should be muted by cloud cover, but still warm and humid with
highs in the 80s and humidity minimums remaining above 50%.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Cooler for the weekend.
2. Shower chances diminish

An upper level trough is forecast to settle over Ontario and New
England for the weekend. This will advect cooler air from Canada
southward into the northern Mid-Atlantic promoting cooler nights
and near seasonal temperatures during the day. Shower chances
decrease but are not void entirely due to the proximity of the
upper trough and cyclonic flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 805 PM EDT Monday...

Fog is expected to develop during the early morning hours,
especially across the mountain valleys. Dense fog is likely for
areas that saw rain this afternoon and near lakes and rivers
(KLWB). Fog should lift by 14Z/10A Tuesday.

Scattered storms are possible again Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Due to the slow movement, coverage, and timing of
storms, forecast confidence is too low to include more than VCSH
in the TAFs tomorrow afternoon.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Morning fog is likely in mountain valleys Wednesday.

Greater likelihood of flight restrictions/MVFR (or lower) on
Wednesday and Thursday with showers and thunderstorms ahead of a
cold front.

Friday is expected to be drier and a better probability of VFR
conditions behind the front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/SH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RCS/SH