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800
FXUS65 KVEF 300303
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
803 PM PDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and breezy conditions will continue across most
of the region through Sunday. Monsoonal moisture will move back into
northwest Arizona, bringing slight chances for thunderstorms in
Mohave County Sunday and early this coming week. A strong ridge of
high pressure will build Wednesday through the Independence Day
weekend with temperatures climbing several degrees leading to an
extended period of dangerous heat.

&&

.UPDATE...
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Expect hot conditions to continue through the evening
hours with temperatures at midnight still expected to be in the
low 90s in Las Vegas and around 100 degrees in Death Valley.
The gusty winds we have had this afternoon and early evening will
be decreasing with the exception of the Western Mojave Desert
where stronger gusts are possible for a few hours this evening
before dropping off overnight. The forecast appears to be in good
shape so no updates are needed at this time. For the upcoming
forecast package, we will be looking at developing weather
conditions on Sunday that will bring enhanced fire danger to much
of the area and at the likelihood of an extended period of
dangerously hot conditions settling over much of the area by the
4th of July holiday through the upcoming weekend.
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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
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225 PM PDT Sat Jun 29 2024...

.SHORT TERM...through Monday.

Through Sunday, our forecast area will be caught between a broad
trough moving across the Pacific Northwest and an expansive ridge
over the southern states. South-southwest winds that have generally
been gusting 20-30 mph during the afternoon hours will increase
about 5-10 mph by Sunday afternoon...with the strongest winds
expected over Lincoln County near the Utah border. The main concern
will be increasing fire danger across the region with the continued
hot and breezy to windy conditions. Wind speeds will decrease
slightly Monday as the trough axis moves across the northern
Intermountain Region and Rockies. High temperatures will only
fluctuate slightly across our forecast area with readings holding
within a degree or two of the 110 degree mark in Las Vegas.

Meanwhile, monsoon moisture over central and eastern Arizona will be
pulled toward northwest Arizona in response to the trough passage.
This will reintroduce the potential for isolated thunderstorms over
eastern Mohave County Sunday afternoon through Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

A period of excessive heat looks to be shaping up across much of
southeast California and southern Nevada beginning Wednesday and
persisting through next weekend as a strong Eastern Pacific ridge
amplifies and expands inland over the Interior West. Model ensembles
are in quite good agreement with this exceptionally strong ridge.
High temperatures will climb several degrees and the NBM indicates
about a 40 percent chance of reaching the 115 degree mark in Las
Vegas Thursday through Saturday.

This will lead to High and Extreme HeatRisk developing and expanding
over much of the Mojave Desert Wednesday into next weekend. This
magnitude of heat is dangerous to everyone and proper safety
precautions are recommended including limiting time outdoors and
staying hydrated.

Low grade monsoonal moisture may persist in northwest Arizona
through Wednesday, before tending to shift southeast the rest of the
week in response to the prevailing dry northwest or northerly flow
associated with the ridge.
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&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Persistent south-southwest winds
will continue through Sunday under clear skies. Gusts 20-25 knots
will occur during the afternoon and early evening hours followed by
speeds decreasing to less than 10 knots after sunset and overnight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...General south-southwest winds will persist across most
of the region through Sunday under clear skies. Gusts 20-25 knots
can be expected during the afternoon and early evening hours then
speeds will diminish to less than 10 knots after sunset and
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry weather with increasing southwest winds
Sunday will lead to elevated fire danger across most of the region.
Critical conditions will be confined to southeast Nevada. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect from noon to 8 pm PDT Sunday for Lincoln County
Nevada Fire Weather Zone 461.

Monsoonal moisture moves back into Arizona Sunday, bringing slight
chances for thunderstorms in Mohave County at least through
Wednesday. Farther west, temperatures will continue to climb, likely
reaching dangerous levels late in the week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Salmen

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Adair

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