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FXAK67 PAJK 172248
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
248 PM AKDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SHORT TERM...
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More sun and warm weather is in store for SE AK
today with the extremely slight chance of a thunderstorm on the
extreme northern end and extreme southeastern end of the
panhandle. Currently, at the time of writing, a series of
thunderstorms in British Columbia is moving south, soon to cross
over near Haines Customs. Furthermore, another cluster of storms
may hold together to enter the AOR near Hyder. Expect condition
for continued storm development to last through early this
evening.

As for the pesky marine layer, areas along the coast are not
expected to have clearing skies for much of the day on Tuesday,
with highs only reaching the the low 60s. Elsewhere in the far
inner channels, temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s for
Juneau northward, and the upper 60s for the central and southern
panhandle.

.LONG TERM...Summer-like weather will be the start of the long
term forecast, but a weather pattern change will bring cooler
temps and rain back to the panhandle.

A ridge will continue to hover over SE AK through Wednesday, with
the axis slowly moving E over the Gulf and across the area. Dry,
with afternoon sea breezes in the inner channels is the main theme
over the next few days. By Thursday, a weak wave will attempt to
advance through the ridge, bringing with it chances of rain, though
operational guidance is likely overemphasizing PoP chances with this
system. Anticipate fairly minimal QPF totals and wind impacts, if
the system isn`t largely eroded away by the ridge itself.

By the end of the week, an extension of a closed low over the
Aleutians attempts to form into a longwave trough and move into the
Gulf, bringing some onshore flow, cooler temperatures, and
increasing PoPs through the weekend. Think that there is a good
chance that much of the energy will move S of the panhandle, but
still anticipate at least some chances of rain for the area.

Threats to coastal and gulf waters remain low through Thursday,
with our swells significant deep ocean wave heights remaining
largely under 8ft. With that said, stout 15 to 20 knot northwest
winds along the coast will bring short period wind driven waves to
the west coast of Prince of Wales and into Dixon Entrance.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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/Through Tuesday afternoon/...The extensive marine
layer that penetrated well inland last night never did completely
dissipate today and will return tonight. Expect very low CIGs once
again Tuesday morning, but when the clouds dissipate with daytime
heating, it will be very fine flying weather. As with today,
lowest conditions will be on the outer coast and last there the
longest.

Showers and thunderstorms began forming over The Yukon and British
Columbia by late morning and have been tracking south and
increasing in number through the afternoon the potential for
afternoon thunderstorms over Southeast Alaska is there, but the
probability of them surviving the transit over the higher terrain
that makes up the international border is low. Best chance for
them to appear will be over the far northern inner channels -
Skagway, Haines and Lynn Canal. Expect the same for tomorrow
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&&

.MARINE...
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The previous day`s marine layer currently moving out of
the inner channels will make it`s return to the inside waters late
tonight. Not looking much in terms of fog tonight with some drier
air undercutting the aforementioned marine layer, raising the
cloud deck up hundreds of feet. Winds from the resulting
temperature difference will continue to increase in east west
facing channels such as Icy Strait and Peril Strait as the layer
retreats. Expect similar conditions tomorrow as the marine layer
retreats yet again Tuesday morning.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Flood advisory continues for the Chilkat River due to
snowmelt. The river has crested and is expected to lower through
this afternoon and evening before raising again. The Chilkat is
expected to continue to fluctuate up and down on a daily pattern
through the next few days with the river staying above minor flood
stage for most of that time. By Thursday, as clouds move into the
area limiting daytime heating, the Chilkat stage will begin to
drop and then fall below flood stage overnight.
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&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-642.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....GJS/GFS
AVIATION...Fritsch

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