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945
FXUS61 KALY 171934
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
334 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain in place across the region through
tonight, brining continued dry conditions. Clouds will increase
tonight well north of a low pressure system developing near the
mid Atlantic Coast. A few showers showers may occur well south
of Albany late Wednesday through Friday, but most of the area
will remain dry. High pressure then builds in from eastern
Quebec late Friday into Saturday with dry weather and seasonable
temperatures into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will remain in place across the region tonight,
providing continued dry conditions. A weak area of low pressure
developing off the southern mid Atlantic coast will start to
slowly drift northward, which looks to result in just increasing
high/mid level clouds in our area. Clouds could still be thin
enough at times to result in patchy fog/low stratus clouds. Low
temperatures should mainly be in the 50s.

The weak coastal storm off the mid Atlantic coast should
continue to slowly track northeast on Wed. Model guidance has
trended drier due to a more easterly track compared to the past
few days. So dry conditions should prevail across most of the
area, with just a 20-30% chance of a few showers near the I-84
corridor. Skies expected to be mostly cloudy from around I-90
south, and partly sunny north. So high temperatures will be
coolest where clouds are most prevalent (70s), with upper
70s/lower 80s north.

The coastal low tracks to a position south of Cape Cod/Rhode
Island Wed night, where its northward progress is expected to
stall. Isolated to scattered showers may rotate around the
northwest periphery of the system. Still only 20-30% for showers
south of Albany and remaining completely dry across the
northern half of the area. With thicker cloud cover anticipated,
low temperatures will be mild ranging from the mid to upper
50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The coastal low south of New England is not expected to move
much on Thu, and may actually nudge slightly southward through
the day. So chances for showers remain low, with just a small
area of 20-30% PoPs for areas well south/east of Albany.
Elsewhere dry conditions will persist. Skies should be mostly
cloudy east of the Hudson Valley and partly sunny west. High
temperatures look similar ranging from the mid/upper 70s to
lower 80s. The warmest readings look to be in the Hudson Valley
from around Albany north. It will feel somewhat humid with
dewpoints in the lower 60s in lower elevations.

As the coastal storm continues to slowly drift south Thu night,
chances for showers will lower as well. Will only mention ~20%
PoPs well south/east of Albany. Lows look to be in the mid 50s
to around 60, with the coolest temperatures in the higher
terrain west of the Hudson Valley.

A large area of high pressure will start to track southward
from eastern Quebec on Fri, with ridging extending south/west
from the center into New England and eastern NY. This will push
a cold front south across our area. The front may interact with
moisture from the old coastal storm, so will mention 20% chance
of showers across much of the area with only isolated coverage
expected. Highs Fri will remain above normal ahead of the cold
front, with mainly mid 70s to near 80.

Aside from an isolated shower south of Albany Fri evening, the
cold front will push south of the area Fri night. Lingering
cloud cover behind the front could still keep temperatures
relatively mild. Lows should generally be in the 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will slowly drift south from the far eastern
Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes on Sat to Maine by Monday.
Ridging is expected to extend south/west from the center of the
high into New England and eastern NY with a seasonably cool
east-northeast breeze. This pattern should result in dry
conditions with temperatures cooling off to near normal levels.

Dry weather could persist into Tue, as the high shifts south of
Maine with surface ridging still holding on. A cold front and
upper trough approaching from the Great Lakes may get close
enough to the area to bring a few showers, but most guidance is
showing the bulk of any showers to hold off until mid week.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 18Z/Wednesday, VFR conditions through sunset with just
considerable high clouds.

For tonight, areas of fog/low clouds expected to develop, with
greatest chances for IFR/LIFR conditions at KGFL, KPSF and KPOU
after 08Z/Wed. Some IFR conditions may reach KALB around
12Z/Wed, however there is greater uncertainty for this to occur.

Low clouds/fog and associated IFR/LIFR conditions should lift
to VFR between 12Z-14Z/Wed, although could linger a bit later at
KPOU. VFR conditions are then expected thereafter.

Light/variable winds will trend to calm tonight, then
light/variable again Wednesday morning, although may become
east to northeast at 4-8 KT at KPOU by late morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL