-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
234
FXUS61 KALY 212002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
402 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and seasonably warm conditions through tomorrow,
then temperatures trend cooler through Monday and Tuesday. Our
long stretch of dry weather then comes to an end by the middle
to end of this week as unsettled conditions develop and chances
for showers increase Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mostly clear tonight and the only areas with some question
about whether cloud cover will develop is in western New England
within the very western periphery of the clouds associated with
the coastal storm, and some convective debris from storms in
western NY/PA. Cooling and drying from the low level ridging in
northeastern New England and SE Canada could provide some low
level drying and cooling, especially in areas with the most
persistent clear sky through the night.

Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low level cooling and drying continues from the east, pushing
west and south, while upper energy and moisture affecting
western NY/PA weakens, dries up and lifts north into Canada.
Some question about how much cloud cover from convective debris
tracks into our region, but the most cloud cover should be in
western areas. Some cloud cover could form where the moisture in
western NY/PA converges with the drier air in eastern NY but
where that boundary sets up is in question.

There should be enough sun to help temperatures reach the upper
60s to lower 70s with a few mid 70s in the Hudson Valley and
western Mohawk Valley and a few mid 60s higher terrain.

A slow and gradual increase in cloud cover as another upper
impulse and surge of moisture and low level forcing slowly
builds east. The low level cooler and drier air remains somewhat
anchored over our region but rain should hold off until later
Monday night and Tuesday and mainly just scattered showers
from the Schoharie Valley and western Mohawk Valley through the
southwestern Adirondacks.

Highs Monday in the 60s to around 70. Highs Tuesday in the 60s
with upper 50s to around 60 higher terrain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Complex upper pattern evolution Wednesday through Saturday.
Upper energy weakens and lifts north Wednesday, then phases with
northern stream energy dropping south, to develop a closed low
that drops through the northeast U.S. Thursday and Friday. So,
showers likely with some isolated thunderstorms, especially
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

With the closed upper low slow to drop south and offshore New
England, scattered showers each day through Thursday with more
isolated showers Friday. Potentially dry by Saturday. Still,
unsettled weather most of the week, and potential for heavy
rain seems low as deeper more tropical moisture will be lacking
but any measurable rain, even light, will help alleviate the
dry conditions we have had lately.

Highs Wednesday in the lower to mid 60s with some 50s in higher
terrain. Highs Thursday in the mid 60s to around 70 with around
60 higher elevations. Highs Friday and Saturday in the mid 60s
to lower 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through at
least sunset, despite varying levels of clouds with Cigs between
3500-5000 FT AGL, and also around 10,000 FT AGL.

After sunset, patches of mid level clouds are expected. In
between these cloud patches, there may be some patchy ground fog
developing, especially after 08Z/Sun. Low confidence overall in
any one particular TAF site reaching IFR/LIFR Vsbys/Cigs,
although chances may be slightly higher at KGFL and KPOU should
prolonged breaks in the mid level clouds occur.

MVFR Cigs may develop at KPSF and prevent lower Cigs/Vsbys later
tonight through around 14Z/Sun.

After any patchy fog lifts 12Z-14Z/Sun, occasional cloud patches
will continue through midday Sunday, with Cigs mainly between
3500-5000 FT AGL, with Cigs more persistent at KPSF.

East to northeast winds 5-10 KT this afternoon, becoming
light/variable tonight, then east to northeast by mid to late
Sunday morning again at 5-10 KT.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...KL