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707
FXUS61 KALY 241945
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
345 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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As high pressure builds into the region, clouds will
start to decrease across the region along with a diminishing wind
for tonight. High pressure will allow for dry and sunny weather on
Tuesday, with comfortable levels of humidity.  Warm and more humid
conditions are expected on Wednesday, along with some afternoon and
evening thunderstorms.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 345 PM EDT...A closed off upper level low is located over
Vermont. With the cold pool overhead, 850 hpa temps have fallen
to +8 C, which is much lower than recent days. At the surface,
our region remains situated between a departing area of low
pressure off the coast of New England and an area of high
pressure over the Midwest. With a decent pressure gradient in
place, there have been gusty west to northwest winds this
afternoon. Some gusts have approached 30 mph at times.

With the cyclonic flow in place and cool temps aloft, widespread
stratocu clouds have developed across the region. In addition,
some brief instability showers have been occurring across the
region, especially for areas north and west of the Capital
Region. These spotty showers will start to diminish this
evening, as the upper level low continues to depart and the loss
of daytime heating helps allows for more stable conditions
within the lower portion of the troposphere.

Overnight, clouds will be decreasing across the region, as some
drier air works into the region and surface high pressure builds
into the area. Skies will become mostly clear by the late night
hours and winds will be decreasing as well. Some patchy fog
could develop in some sheltered areas where the wind can go
calm, but this will be fairly isolated. Otherwise, it will be a
comfortable and quiet overnight, with temps down into the 50s to
low 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will continue to allow for quiet weather through
the day on Tuesday. Behind the departing upper level trough,
heights and temps aloft will be rapidly rising on Tuesday. 850
hpa temps will reach +16 C by late Tuesday. Valley areas will be
up into the mid to upper 80s for highs, with upper 70s to low
80s in the high terrain. Despite the warm temps, dewpoints will
remain comfortable in the 50s thanks to the deep mixing and the
low level flow out of the west. Skies will be fairly sunny
through the day, but some clouds will start to increase for late
in the day.

On Tuesday night, temps will milder than Monday night, with lows
in the 60s. Some passing clouds are expected and maybe a few
light showers across northwestern areas as warm front starts
approaching from the west.

Our area will be within a warm sector for Wednesday. Upper level
shortwave trough will be moving from the Great Lakes towards the
Northeast on Wednesday with a surface cold front approaching
from the west and some showers and thunderstorms look to develop
across the area. With a warm and more humid air mass in place,
there should be some instability to work with across the region.
12z NAM suggest SBCAPE values may exceed around 1000 J/kg on
Wednesday. Decent deep-layer shear looks to be in place as well,
so any storms that develop could become organized. SPC has a
marginal to slight risk across the region, with the best threat
for organized storms across southern areas, where there will be
the best overlap of instability, shear and storm coverage. These
storms could linger into Wed night as well depending on the
exact timing of the cold front.

Temps will be rather warm again on Wednesday with highs well
into the 80s to low 90s. With dewpoints creeping higher, heat
index values could approach advisory criteria in the mid Hudson
Valley. Temps should fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s behind the
front on Wednesday night, with some clearing expected late.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The long term period will begin with the 500 hPa trough axis
shifting east and high pressure building into the Northeast behind a
surface cold front. This will contribute to dry conditions and
seasonable temperatures on Thursday and Friday.

Ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement with the evolution
of a shortwave trough at 500 hPa that will progress eastward across
the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday and Sunday. A warm front
with the associated surface low is forecast to lift northeast
through the CWA Saturday morning. Low level flow within the warm
sector of the surface cyclone will advect tropical moisture into the
CWA with NAEFS/ENS mean PWAT increasing to over 1.75" by Saturday
evening (above the 90th percentile of KALB sounding climatology for
late June/early July). The abundant moisture will support medium to
high (50%-80%) chances for precipitation late Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning as the trough and surface cyclone move east
of the forecast area. Based on the progressive nature of the system,
the likelihood of flash flooding is currently very low (5% chance or
less) despite the abundant moisture being advected into the
region. While vertical wind shear greater than 30 knots will be
supportive of organized convection, there is uncertainty with
regards to how much destabilization will be able to occur within
the warm sector of the surface cyclone. Therefore, the
likelihood of strong/severe thunderstorms currently looks to be
low (less than 15%). The system is expected to exit the area
Sunday evening with drier conditions expected early next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Upper level trough is overhead, producing mostly cloudy skies
and some spotty showers. Most of the stratocu is around
3500-5000 ft, so flying conditions are mainly VFR. Brief showers
are possible, but any reductions in visibility will be very
brief and short-lived (mainly into the MVFR range for visibility
for a short time). Showers will dissipate towards evening.
Westerly winds will be gusty this afternoon, with sustained
winds 10 to 16 kts and some gusts in the 20-25 kt range. These
winds will also diminish for this evening.

Decreasing winds and clouds expected for tonight. Flying
conditions will mainly be VFR, although some fog could develop
late in the overnight at KGFL if winds decouple enough.
Otherwise, it will be VFR for all sites, with skies becoming
clear and light winds by the late night hours.

Flying conditions will be VFR on Tuesday. Clear skies will gave
way to some afternoon clouds with westerly winds of 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Humphrey
AVIATION...Frugis