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940
FXUS61 KALY 190555
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
155 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A coastal low will remain off the New England coast today
keeping our region mainly dry under filtered sunshine with
slightly above normal temperatures. Our coastal low tracks south
and west late tonight into tomorrow, resulting in a few showers
spreading into western New England and perhaps parts of eastern
NY. Then, a cold front on Saturday will allow a cooler Canadian
air mass to spread into the area, leading to seasonable cooler
temperatures for Sunday into the first half of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

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Latest GOES16 night fog and IR channel shows breaks within
the cirrus canopy as a coastal low deepens off the Long Island
coast and approaches southern New England with ridging centered
over the Corn Belt States amplifying and extending into Ontario.
This has led to enough subsidence over the Northeast to
partially clear the cirrus to result in radiational cooling and
temperatures cooling within a degree or two of the respective
dew point. With dew points slightly elevated compared to last
night in the mid to upper 50s, patchy fog has already developed
at a few sites per latest METAR observations and the night fog
channel. Expecting fog to become more widespread through the
river valley through the remainder of the overnight hours as the
dew point depressions decreases further. Fog will likely be
dense in some spots, especially near wet lands. Otherwise,
overnight temperatures expected to drop into the low to mid 50s
thanks to just thin cirrus overhead and calm winds.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
System offshore continues to organize and there are some
differences in sources of guidance/ensembles as to how far north
and west the rain shield gets. Intervals of clouds and sun
Thursday as any northern edge of any precipitation shield would
hold off until Friday, with the best chances on Friday in the
mid Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills and Berkshires. A northern
stream upper impulse dropping out of far eastern Canada is
expected to push slightly cooler air from the north and east
into our region and that low level forcing could interact with
the coastal storm, supporting the scattered showers in our
region. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out from the
Schoharie Valley to Capital Region to southern Vermont.

So, with the intervals of clouds and sun Thursday, and more
clouds with more clouds south and east of the Capital Region,
temperatures will be a little cooler than recent days, but highs
Thursday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. On Friday, the
better chance of showers with the weak backdoor front and
northern precipitation shield from the coastal storm, highs in
the mid to upper 70s with lower 70s higher terrain.

Lingering clouds and isolated showers east of the Hudson River
Saturday with less cloud cover west of the Hudson River as the
coastal system begins to slowly exit and the weak backdoor
front washes out. Highs Saturday around 70 to mid 70s. Slowly
improving sky Saturday night, especially in western areas with
lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Flat upper ridging builds in from the west, as overall upper
heights fall with an approaching developing upper impulse
approaches from Canada and the Great Lakes, dry weather Sunday
through Tuesday with possible showers by later Tuesday through
Wednesday with the approach of a cold front.

There are lots of differences in sources of guidance as to the
strength of the upper energy, the timing and any colder air as
the system exits. Temperatures will at least be normal, with a
chance for a bit above normal if the upper ridging weakens the
upper energy and there is less cool air behind the system. But
for now, the best chances for showers look to be later Tuesday
and Wednesday but confidence is low.

Highs Sunday through Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s
with cooler in higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 06z Friday... VFR conditions should continue for KPOU and
KPSF through the TAF period. Vicinity fog could be experienced
between 19/09z and 19/12z, but kept mention out of the TAFs as
visibility and ceilings should remain above VFR. For KALB, similar
to last night where fog could roll into the airport between 19/06z
and 19/12z, so kept the prevailing group VFR with TEMPOs of IFR/MVFR
conditions as satellite imagery and current surface observations are
already showing fog developing. For KGFL, similar to the last few
nights of fog between 6z and 12z with a variety of conditions of VFR
to MVFR/IFR. After 12z, conditions begin to improve for both TAF
sites. There potential for vicinity showers this afternoon for KPOU,
so kept the mention of them in the TAFs through 20/00z.

Winds remain calm through this afternoon then becoming light winds
between 3 and 8 knots to the north to northeast through this evening
before becoming calm again for the overnight hours.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Webb