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147
FXUS61 KBGM 290649
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
249 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected today and
tonight. Showers and storms linger into Sunday as cold front
pushes through. Drier air returns Monday and lasts through
midweek under high pressure.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

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245 AM Update...

Deep SW flow will increase moisture across the region today with
a strong low- level jet pushing into the area this evening and
tonight ahead of a cold front. For today, PWATs increase to near
2" by early this afternoon. Instability is weak today and
through the afternoon, so current thinking is mostly rain
showers through the day. However, later tonight as the low level
jet punches in, instability and shear increase. Main concern for
this evening and tonight is the strong low level shear and
impressive helicity. A high shear, and low instability
environment may still be enough to support a brief tornado and
strong wind gusts in a low topped convective environment.
Localized flash flooding will also be possible with high PWATs
and deep warm cloud layer, and any thunderstorms that are able
to materialize will be efficient rain makers.

Cold front enters our western counties Sunday morning and pushes
across the area. More showers and thunderstorms will be likely
depending of FROPA timing. Best chances for anything severe will
be our far east/south eastern counties.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM Update...

A cold front will just be moving into the Finger Lakes on Sunday
morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely to be
ongoing across the area. The front will push east of the area by
mid-afternoon, but there`s a narrow window for a few isolated
thunderstorms to become strong to severe late in the morning
into the early afternoon hours before the front exits. The main
shortwave trough looks to lag behind the front considerably, and
this will keep the risk for a few showers behind the front into
the overnight hours.

Monday will be dry, cooler, and breezy with NW winds. Max
temperatures look to top out in the lower to middle-70s.

High pressure settling in overhead Monday night will diminish
the winds and set us up for another somewhat cool night, with
low temps dropping into the upper-40s to lower-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM Update...

High pressure sliding east of the area on Tuesday will bring
a return of SW flow and warmer temperatures reaching into the
upper-70s and lower-80s, with continued dry conditions. The dry
weather looks to continue into Wednesday, with a cold front
bringing scattered showers and possible thunderstorms to the
area later Wednesday night. With the off and on wet weather
lately, Monday morning to Wed evening presents the longest dry
stretch of the week. The front pushing through Wednesday night
stalls out to our south on Thursday, and a disturbance rippling
along it will bring the chance of rain back to the area Thursday
night into Friday, with precip chances slightly favoring NEPA
and the Southern Tier.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Warm front will bring light rain showers into the region this
morning. These showers may bring brief MVFR restrictions.
Heavier showers and thunderstorms move into the area this
afternoon and evening, which will reduce visibilities and
ceilings.

Southerly winds will become gusty this morning with gusts as
high as 20 kts. Tomorrow, as the system moves in with the
showers, gusts will be 20 to 25 kts through the afternoon and
early evening hours. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) will be
possible, but with thunderstorms also becoming more likely late
in the day, decided not to add LLWS to any sites except RME.
Direction will be south- southwest with speeds up to 40 kts at
2000 ft AGL.

Outlook...


Sunday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible.


Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...BTL/MPK