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264
FXUS61 KBGM 230805
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
405 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected across the
region today, as a cold front approaches the area. Some storms
may produce damaging winds, hail, and torrential rainfall. The
front will push through the area tonight, bringing relief from
the heat and humidity to start the week. Showers and
thunderstorms look to return on Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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400 AM Update:

Surface analysis places a low over Lake Huron with a wavy quasi-
stationary front across Lake Ontario and the Mohawk Valley. With
warm moist air overrunning the front, widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms have been moving across Lake Ontario and much
of northern NY. A few stronger storms have developed near the Mohawk
Valley, including a severe thunderstorm which produced 1.25 inch
diameter hail in northern Oneida County earlier.

Upper level flow is mostly zonal across the northeastern US, with a
sharp upper level trough over the upper Great Lakes. Weak
disturbances embedded in the westerly flow continue to move through
the area, helping to trigger the odd convective cell across Central
NY and NEPA now and then, but it`s been mostly quiet south of the
Thruway for the past several hours.

Models show a leading shortwave trough will move into western NY/PA
late this morning, pushing east of the area by early evening. This
feature will be the main trigger for widespread showers and
thunderstorms from late this morning into the evening hours. At the
surface, increasing SW flow will be in place, and with no strong
surface forcing, CAMS indicate thunderstorms will form in several
clusters or bands by the afternoon across the CWA. Eventually, a
prefrontal surface trough will push in from the west, putting an end
to convection during the evening hours.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely, especially given 0-6km
shear of 35 to 45 knots, strengthening in the afternoon, which
favors eastern and southern portions of the CWA. Late in the
afternoon, 0-1 km shear also increases to around 25 to 30 knots in
parts of the Catskills and NEPA. However, upper air analysis shows a
mid-level thermal ridge axis extending across the Appalachians. This
looks to advect into the area later today, and shows up well in
BUFKIT soundings as a warm/dry layer around 700-550mb especially in
eastern areas of the CWA in the late morning and early afternoon
hours. The warm layer does tend to modify by late afternoon/early
evening, but does appear to limit lapse rates and overall
instability to some extent.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish overnight, with wrap-around
showers and isolated thunder continuing through Monday, along with
noticeably cooler temperatures in the upper-60s to mid-70s.

As for the Heat Advisory today (Sunday)...widespread cloud cover
this morning and onset of showers and thunderstorms late this
morning in the western half of the CWA, it looks like we`ll fall
just short of criteria except for lower elevations of NEPA and
Sullivan County, NY.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A fairly potent mid level disturbance will move southeast into the
area Monday as a cold front continues to push well east of our
region. This will bring a welcome relief from the excessive heat.
However, enough lift and moisture looks present for additional
scattered showers focused with peak heating in the afternoon.
Clouds look to be fairly persistent as well keeping highs just
under 80 for most of the region. Model soundings also show a
fair amount of wind being transported to the surface as well
with gusts of 20 mph possible.

High pressure is then expected to build back into the region by
Tuesday. Potentially chilly start with clearing by Tuesday morning
but highs should rebound into the 80`s given plenty of sun. A
muggier night Tuesday night as should already switch to a warm and
moist southwesterly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next cold front continues to trend faster passing through the
region later Wednesday into early Thursday. Modeled boundary
layer temperatures indicate highs in some areas could hit 90
again. However, some uncertainity is present given clouds and
the likely development of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
front. Heat index values in portions of central New York could
once again get close to 95.

Any strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and night will depend on the timing of the front. Currently, 30-40
knots of 0-6KM shear along with 1,000-1,500 J/KG CAPE is modeled.
These values would be enough to allow some thunderstorms to produce
gusty winds. This front looks fairly potent bringing in a refreshing
shot of cooler air Thursday and Friday with highs back down into the
70`s and 80`s. Yet another cold front Saturday with slightly warmer
temperatures ahead of it.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overnight convection has been staying just north of RME and SYR,
and VFR conditions have prevailed with mid clouds limiting
radiational cooling. Will need to keep watch on AVP as some
partial clearing moves over, elsewhere, clouds look to play
spoiler on fog, including at ELM.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
this afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
with strong wind gusts and hail possible. Kept PROB30s for the
time being, as several clusters of thunderstorms make it
difficult to pin down timing.

Outlook...

Sunday Night into Monday Morning...Showers and thunderstorms
diminish Sunday night, but lower ceilings will work in from the
northwest during the predawn hours.

Monday afternoon...Ceilings lifting to VFR Monday afternoon,
though scattered showers will continue through the day.

Monday Evening through Tuesday...VFR likely.

Wednesday through Thursday...Restrictions possible in scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ062.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MPH