Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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473 FXUS61 KBUF 161907 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure sliding off the New England coast will maintain dry weather through this evening. This will also bring in warmer weather, which will last through at least Thursday. It will be dangerously hot, with apparent temperatures likely to reach 100 at some locations Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will drift east off the New England coast, and this combined with mid-level ridging will maintain rain-free weather. A patch of high clouds will move across the area this afternoon, but will only temporarily filter sunshine. Today will also start the warming trend, with afternoon temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s across far western New York and the Genesee Valley, with a range of 70s further east. A warm frontal segment will pass by to our north, and this will begin to bring in a more humid air mass. This frontal passage will also bring a small chance of showers, mainly across the Eastern Lake Ontario region late tonight. Following the warm frontal passage temperatures on Monday will be notably warmer, and it will also be more humid. Apparent temperatures will rise into the upper 90s in the lower Genesee Valley and Western Finger lakes region, where a Heat Advisory was issued starting Monday. Elsewhere, will be hot with high temperatures in the upper 80s and apparent temperatures in the lower 90s. For the most part, the day should be rain-free but some high res models do develop some isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given forecast soundings, it appears this is likely overdone and only supports a slight chance PoPs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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...Dangerous Heat Wave Will Begin For The Region... Surface high pressure will be anchored over the Atlantic and a deep southerly flow will bring HOT and HUMID conditions during the day and WARM and HUMID conditions during the night Monday night through Wednesday night. An anomalously strong upper level ridge will build across the eastern Great Lakes region and Northeast through mid-week. Warm air advection will take place Monday night through Tuesday with 850mb temperatures climbing to +20C. Very warm Monday night with lows in the upper 60s across the higher terrain and low 70s across the lake plains. Temperatures will soar into the low 90s across the region with valley locations reaching the mid to upper 90s Tuesday. Dewpoints will climb into the upper 60s to low 70s with PWAT values 1.5 inches or greater. The combination of the heat and humidity will drive heat index values into the upper 90s to low 100s Tuesday afternoon. The forecast area will be on the northwest side of the strong upper level ridge and should be enough in the ridge to keep any upstream thunderstorm complexes outside the forecast area Tuesday. There will be high surface based instability across the region (sans the immediately shorelines.) Terrain circulations and lake breeze boundaries will likely produce a cu field with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any convection will wane into the evening hours. The very warm airmass will persist through Tuesday night with overnight lows only reaching the low 70s. There is little change in the sensible weather for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Another HOT and HUMID day with highs in the low to mid 90s, dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. There is some model guidance that shows 850mb temperatures a few degrees higher (EC) which could add a degree or two to high temps Wednesday. The forecast area will remain on the northwest side of the upper level ridge Wednesday through Wednesday night. The convective potential is similar to Tuesday with low coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Another very warm night with lows in the low to mid 70s. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area Tuesday through Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The heat and humidity will be the big story this period. Highs in the 90s Thursday combined with dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s will bring apparent temperatures into the 90s to lower 100s. Under the zonal flow later in the period daytime highs will drop back several degrees, with less 90s found Friday and Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR flight conditions will prevail through Monday afternoon. There`s a small chance of showers east of Lake Ontario late tonight, otherwise just periodic cloud cover with cloud bases well in the VFR flight category. Outlook... Monday night...VFR. Tuesday through Friday...VFR, but a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms inland from the lakes. && .MARINE... Lake breeze enhanced easterly winds will increase this afternoon, especially on the central and western portions of Lake Ontario where some choppy conditions may develop. Winds will then be generally light Monday through much of next week as high pressure anchors over the Ohio Valley and New England. && .CLIMATE... A prolonged period of heat is expected for our region, starting Monday June 17th. Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites: ...Buffalo... ...Date.....Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)... ...June 17........94/1994............73/2006 ...June 18........95/1994............73/2006 ...June 19........90/2001............73/1919 ...June 20........92/1995............73/2012 ...Rochester... ...Date.....Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)... ...June 17........94/1994............70/1994 ...June 18........97/1957............72/2018 ...June 19........95/2001............72/1919 ...June 20........95/1953............72/1923 ...Watertown... ...Date.....Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)... ...June 17........89/1994............68/1949 ...June 18........91/1957............70/1992 ...June 19........91/2007............70/1949 ...June 20........90/1971............71/2012 Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871. Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ001-002-006>008-010>012-019>021-085. Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ003>005-013-014. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel NEAR TERM...Apffel/TMA SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...Apffel MARINE...Apffel CLIMATE...Thomas