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372
FXUS62 KCAE 280101
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
901 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and humid conditions continue into the weekend. Afternoon
and evening rain and storm chances increase through the weekend
with noticeably higher moisture building into the region.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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KEY MESSAGES:
- Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms diminish this
  evening.

- Muggy tonight with areas of low stratus and/or patchy fog
  possible towards daybreak.

Radar this evening shows lingering showers an isolated
thunderstorm or two across the region. This activity will
continue to wane and/or move out of the FA during the next few
hours leading to a dry but balmy night. Skies are expected to
clear out from northwest to southeast though there may be areas
of low stratus and/or fog developing towards daybreak,
especially in areas that saw rain today. Lows tonight will be in
the lower 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- The heat continues with a significant increase in humidity
  levels and rainfall chances.

Upper level ridging will be gradually building over the region
Friday and Saturday as southerly flow continues advecting
moisture into the area. Couple of concerns through the short
term with the first being the continued heat which will be
sightly enhanced by the increasing moisture. Heat index values
will be between 100 and 105 each day which will be just below
criteria so do not expect any headlines however the increase in
moisture will become noticeable. The other concern will be
potential for afternoon thunderstorms each day. There will be
plenty of instability and with some dry air in the mid levels
DCAPE values Friday will be in excess of 700 J/Kg and 500 J/Kg
on Saturday. Thunderstorms which become strong and well
developed vertically will have the potential to produce strong
and gusty winds. With the moisture also creating additional
clouds high temperatures each day will be in the low to mid 90s
with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above normal temperatures persist with excessive potential on
  Sunday.
- Slightly cooler temperatures possible to start off the work
  week.

Change will be coming in the long term however Sunday will see a
potential for excessive heat and potential headlines. Moisture
on Sunday will reach a peak as a frontal boundary moves
southward toward the forecast area. This will work to trap
moisture across the area and when combined with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s thunderstorms will become
likely during the afternoon and evening. The heat index will be
the issue Sunday as values will push to 108 to 113 degrees which
will be well into heat advisory and possibly into the excessive
heat category (113 or higher for at least two hours or more).
Will continue to monitor as this remains several days out. With
the front crossing the area Sunday there will also be an upper
level trough crossing the region and when combined with the heat
there is potential for strong thunderstorms with the main threat
being strong and gusty winds. Behind the front slightly cooler
temperatures will move into the region with high temperatures
returning to near normal for Monday and Tuesday with
temperatures returning to the mid 90s to near 100 for Wednesday
and Thursday.

As for rainfall potential, with the front both approaching
Sunday, then stalling out across the southern areas into next
week, expect that scattered showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible through the long term. Rainfall will be highly
variable however all rainfall will be welcome as the dry
conditions are beginning to raise fire weather concerns and with
the coming holiday the potential for wildfires will be
increasing if little rainfall is received.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

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VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of some
scattered showers and storms this evening.

Some lingering convection is impacting CAE/CUB/OGB at the start
of the forecast period so have included a mention of thunder
with vsby restrictions through 02z when storms should be
diminishing with the loss of instability. Light winds in the
boundary layer tonight along with some rain in areas may provide
favorable conditions for some fog/stratus. HRRR and MOS guidance
suggesting this as well so included cig restrictions in stratus
and vsby restrictions in fog beginning around 07z-09z and
lasting until around 13z or so.

Improvements expected by 14z with winds picking up from the
southeast around 5 to 8 knots after 16z. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible on Friday but timing and
coverage remains uncertain so will not include in this forecast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered showers-storms with
restrictions each afternoon Friday through Sunday as
additional moisture moves over the region.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$