-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
843
FXUS62 KFFC 262351
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
751 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A dry and hot day is ongoing with mid-afternoon temperatures well
into the upper 90s and 100s. Fortunately, dewpoints remain anchored
in the 50s across the majority of the area, preventing any extreme
heat index readings this afternoon. With temperatures running 2-3
degrees above forecast by midday, highs were adjusted slightly
upward for this afternoon, putting record daily high temperatures
within reach at Atlanta and Macon. The vast majority of us will
remain parched again today with only a rogue shower or thunderstorm
possible through this evening given our dry and capped atmosphere.

Some welcome changes are on the way for Thursday, however. A
shortwave currently approaching the Tennessee Valley will shift
eastward by Thursday morning into our area, setting the stage for
much better rain chances than we`ve seen in a while. Moisture will
surge substantially in advance of this feature with PWATs rapidly
increasing from current ~1" to over 2" by tomorrow morning. Some
showers and perhaps diminishing thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
Thursday morning with PoPs increasing first across west/northwest
Georgia. Further development of scattered showers and thunderstorms
is expected by early afternoon as heating increases. Additionally,
any MCV feature from earlier convection (as hinted by CAMs) would
also provide further impetus for diurnally enhanced development. For
this reason, high end chance to low end likely PoPs are being
advertised on Thursday afternoon. No substantial severe risk is
anticipated with forecast SBCAPE generally <1500 J/kg and weak lapse
rates.

More widespread cloud cover and convection will hold high
temperatures to much more manageable levels on Thursday. Highs will
be much closer to seasonal norms, generally in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, with the 100s fortunately eliminated for the time
being.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

On the heels of a mid lvl shortwave crossing the area (Thursday),
the upr high will quickly attempt to re-assert itself across the
Southern Plains/Southeast region. A return to more typical humidity
values will increase the heat risk through the weekend with heat
indices expected to be in the 105-110F range for much of the area
south/east of I-85 by Sunday. In addition to the heat/humidity, the
chance for storms will increase by Sunday as a weakness in the upr
ridge could send some energy across the area to aid in convective
development.

Drier air attempts to build in from the NW early next week with the
threat for scattered storms remaining across much of central GA. The
center of the upr high meanders back toward the SE region by mid
week maintaining a hot pattern across the area. Temperatures by the
middle of the week heading into 4th of July could be running 5-10F
degrees above normal.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 736 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Showers with a few isolated thunderstorms moving into western GA
this evening. They are holding together fairly well so thinking
the ATL/CSG areas will be the TAF sites that are mainly affected.
These SHRA/TSRA should diminish over he next few hours with more
precipitation expected again Thu. Will start to see storms pop up
around daybreak and continue through most of the day. The best
chance for storms to hit the TAF sites will be during the
afternoon/early evening hours. Winds will be mainly out of the SW
overnight and through most of the day Thu. Winds will turn to the
SE around sunset Thu. Wind speeds will stay mainly 10kt or less
with some stronger gust in and around any convective activity.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  92  71  92 /  10  50  40  50
Atlanta         75  89  74  92 /  20  60  30  40
Blairsville     68  83  67  85 /  20  50  20  50
Cartersville    71  88  71  92 /  20  50  20  40
Columbus        75  89  74  93 /  20  60  50  50
Gainesville     75  88  72  89 /  20  50  30  50
Macon           74  92  72  94 /  10  60  40  50
Rome            73  89  72  93 /  30  50  20  40
Peachtree City  73  89  71  93 /  20  60  30  40
Vidalia         75  94  75  97 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...01